Shawn Siegele breaks down the five reasons Clyde Edwards-Helaire is poised to become a 20% win rate back in 2021.
Over the last four years, nine different backs have hit the 20% win rate level in FFPC best ball. Given the rhetoric around early-round RB, it may be a surprise to discover that only two of those backs were drafted in Round 1. That’s one of the reasons that in our Stealing Bananas episode on Modified Zero RB, Ben Gretch and I suggested that the backs in Round 2 might be better buys for 2021.
It’s not the only reason, of course. You need a year where the Round 1 backs are riddled with red flags and some unique situations where the Round 2 backs are especially appealing. This is that year.
Two of the other 20% win rates come from backs in Round 2. I looked at Todd Gurley’s 2017 season in breaking down why Jonathan Taylor is about to join the uber-backs. Gurley’s ADP was 21 overall that year. His 31% win rate was even better than Christian McCaffrey’s crazy 2019 campaign. But the other back to explode out of Round 2 was McCaffrey himself. Entering 2018, McCaffrey’s rushing ability was being discounted, and much of the rhetoric focused on a Darren Sproles-plus type of profile.
The other five backs come from outside the first 90 picks, and the next closest player in win rate – Kareem Hunt at 19.8% in 2017 – also came from outside the first 90. This is one of the obvious reasons you want exposure to only one early runner, if you want exposure at all.
Could Clyde Edwards-Helaire be that back in 2021? We have a lot of reasons to believe he’s the best positioned to make that Gurley/McCaffrey jump.