Shawn Siegele breaks down why Jonathan Taylor makes such a good target in 2021 and explains why understanding Taylor helps develop your strategy for the entire first round.
Ben Gretch and I were discussing the potential Fall of the Uber-Backs on a recent episode of Stealing Bananas, and we got an excellent listener question wanting to know why I was so high on Taylor. Doesn’t he have more in common with Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb than with the backs who can actually deliver a fantasy title?
A follow-up question might be: What’s so bad about Henry? He scored 21 PPG in 2020 on the back of a 2,000-yard, 17-TD season. Unfortunately, this is how his historic season translated into fantasy.
That’s a far cry from the 23% win rate of James Robinson, Alvin Kamara’s 24%, or Christian McCaffrey 30% in 2019. And the flip side is obvious. If that’s what Henry did in an epic year, imagine what will happen if he’s merely good.
I have Taylor ranked as the 1.04 and Henry at 2.01. I’ll probably move Henry down further before the season starts. With that as the background, I have a lot of work to do to make the case for Taylor.
To be worth the 1.04, Taylor has to make a jump from the 17 PPG he averaged last season. In assessing the likelihood of that jump, we essentially need to answer three questions:
- What type of jump do we normally get from second-year backs?
- If it is a jump, does that still apply to backs with Taylor’s profile who already had strong rookie seasons?
- Can Taylor add the type of receiving value that would make him a potential league winner?