Conor O’Driscoll uses the RotoViz suite of tools to identify opportunities to buy low on players likely to post strong fantasy performances, and to help you see red flags before your opponents notice. The Strength of Schedule (SOS) Streaming App is particularly useful for this as it allows us to see which players have the easiest or most difficult upcoming schedules, a potentially league-winning edge.
The buy-low window on the Chiefs offense just slammed shut on Sunday night as Patrick Mahomes tossed five touchdowns. It became extremely clear how absurd an idea it was that an elite passer like Mahomes could be “figured out.” I continue to believe that the greatest buy-low opportunities come when short-term variance (in efficiency or usage) is paired with compelling narratives packaged with dubious logic.
As D.J. Moore continues to post anemic production, it makes sense to reevaluate his situation and how much it has changed. The crux of the analysis at the time was that he is an elite NFL wide receiver with a dominant target share. The team may have a preference for running the ball, but they have a schedule that may force them to pass more often. Situation-based analysis can be a double-edged sword. It is something that can quickly swing in your favor, but it can also swing against you. Christian McCaffrey’s return and 30%-plus target share changes things. It also appears that Cam Newton will soon be the full-time quarterback, further depressing available volume. Moore’s situation can definitely swing back in his favor, but I do think this is a good example of how tricky betting on variance can be.
Carson Wentz came screaming back down to earth this week, and with him came Michael Pittman. I was expecting the collapse to come against stronger defenses than the Jaguars, but given how thoroughly they stomped Josh Allen, maybe I shouldn’t be surprised. Pittman also earned just a 15% target share, which is especially disappointing given that Wentz threw it just 34 times.
This week I’m going to split the article into two sections. The first section is aimed at teams on the playoff bubble and primarily focuses on strength-of-schedule Weeks 11-14. The second section if for teams who are assured of making the playoffs and will focus on Weeks 14-17. Platforms differ on whether week 14 is part of the regular season or the playoffs, so I’ve included it for both.
Playoff Bubble
This section will primarily focus on players that should be relatively easy to acquire and can help your team immediately.
