Like all NFL seasons, 2021 was an interesting year. As a fantasy football experience, the most important development was the proliferation of very detailed analysis regarding player usage across all positions. This evolution is welcomed as it pushes us all towards a greater understanding of what happens every week. On the other hand, it makes life more difficult. As the information becomes more widespread, the edge from having this information shrinks. Even players who don’t follow each and every trend can use the information if they have access to projections or rankings that incorporate it.
As the market gets sharper, we have two options for how to respond. The first option is to chase softer action, which can often make it easier to win but can also suck all enjoyment out, which isn’t ideal for a hobby. The second option is to try to understand exactly what the market does incorporate so that you can find what it does not and how to exploit that. This is useful in all formats: home leagues, redraft tournaments, best ball, DFS, etc. While this is more challenging, it is equally viable and a lot more fun.
This is the general approach I’ve tried to take this season — evaluate what the market is incorporating and identify areas where it may be overconfident and how to exploit it. It is through the lens of how well I accomplished this that I will be writing this year in review. After rereading each of my columns for the year, I’ve come up with a few key takeaways and general trends that help separate the successful buy low calls from those I wish I could take back, which inform how we should think about player value going forward.
