Receiving skill is crucial for running back prospects, especially in fantasy. In most dynasty leagues, players earn a point for every reception, so backs who can add several points through the air have a huge advantage. This is why receiving yardage market share is one of our favorite RB metrics. We’ve previously found that a 10% threshold usually signals a strong chance of success at the NFL level.
However, not every college offense is the same. Some quarterbacks — especially mobile ones — rarely check down to running backs. Some college coaches rarely scheme passing plays for running backs or ask them to run routes. Some RBs are such efficient runners that a pass to the same back seems like a suboptimal way to get the ball in his hands. (It’s hard to say you should be throwing the ball to Darrell Henderson more when he gains almost nine yards if you just hand it to him.)
To account for this, we’ve developed the backfield dominator rating. It measures a back’s share of his backfield’s total offense — that is, his share of rushing and receiving production among all running backs on his team. If circumstances beyond a back’s control conspire to keep him out of the receiving game — or indeed, keep him from getting many high-value goal line touches — that shouldn’t necessarily count against him. It makes a big difference whether the team was giving another RB those high-value carries and targets, or whether there simply weren’t such RB touches available. Backfield dominator rating levels the playing field in that regard.
