Shawn Siegele looks at three extreme RB values from the ROO and judges whether human or machine is right.
One of my favorite things about the RotoViz tools is the way they allow you to ask different questions and come at player value from different angles. When we use the Projection Machine, we can use the data on team tendencies, player histories, and teammate competition to craft accurate projections. When we use the Win the Flex tool, we get a feel for the number of points implied by ADP. That gives us a chance to exploit positional advantages in specific areas of the draft.
By using the Range of Outcomes tool, we can calibrate our expectations for how players with a specific profile have performed in subsequent years. That’s what we’ll do today.
When I wrote this article last year, I focused on Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Nick Chubb, and Miles Sanders – scoring three hits with one miss on the evaluations. My takeaways? Jacobs and Montgomery would likely provide excess value, Sanders could be a target when he dropped, and Chubb was being valued correctly by drafters.
Jacobs and Montgomery both averaged just over 15 PPG with ADPs in Round 3. Chubb scored 15.5, a disappointment as the No. 15 overall pick, especially with Kareem Hunt missing half the season. Sanders averaged a career-high 5.5 yards per carry, but struggled to stay healthy and hold down his starting role.
I like this exercise – contrasting insights from the ROO with intel from other tools and what we know about changing offensive context – because it helps calibrate the starting point for those secondary discussions. It also forces me to focus on players I might otherwise ignore. Jacobs and Montgomery were not the types of backs I draft even when they look like small wins. It doesn’t fit my overall approach or my preferred tactics. But locating those values might be helpful to RotoViz subscribers who employ different strategies.
I broke this year’s article into two parts, first asking Can the Range of Outcomes Tool Find Discount Options for Ezekiel Elliott? Today we’re setting our sights higher. I want undervalued foundation backs. Not every ROO gem is a sure hit, but I’m going to recommend multiple ways to play the high-volume game.
If you want more points and a lower price tag than what you get with Najee Harris and Joe Mixon . . . you’ve come to the right place.
Other Entries in the RB Value Series
Want Upside? These 4 Young Backs Could Be Javonte Williams at a Fraction of the Cost
5 Veterans With Gaudy Peripherals Who Are Poised to Smash ADP
3 Small Gap Backfields, Including 2 of the Best Offenses in the NFL – Corbin Young
Superstars in Committees: How to Play Elite Muddled Backfields – Corbin Young
Discount Buying Opportunities? What History Tells Us – Corbin Young