Tired of Paying for Najee Harris or Joe Mixon? 3 Undervalued Foundation Backs With Extreme Upside
Image Credit: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Joe Mixon.

Shawn Siegele looks at three extreme RB values from the ROO and judges whether human or machine is right.

One of my favorite things about the RotoViz tools is the way they allow you to ask different questions and come at player value from different angles. When we use the Projection Machine, we can use the data on team tendencies, player histories, and teammate competition to craft accurate projections. When we use the Win the Flex tool, we get a feel for the number of points implied by ADP. That gives us a chance to exploit positional advantages in specific areas of the draft.

By using the Range of Outcomes tool, we can calibrate our expectations for how players with a specific profile have performed in subsequent years. That’s what we’ll do today.

When I wrote this article last year, I focused on Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Nick Chubb, and Miles Sandersscoring three hits with one miss on the evaluations. My takeaways? Jacobs and Montgomery would likely provide excess value, Sanders could be a target when he dropped, and Chubb was being valued correctly by drafters.

Jacobs and Montgomery both averaged just over 15 PPG with ADPs in Round 3. Chubb scored 15.5, a disappointment as the No. 15 overall pick, especially with Kareem Hunt missing half the season. Sanders averaged a career-high 5.5 yards per carry, but struggled to stay healthy and hold down his starting role.

I like this exercise – contrasting insights from the ROO with intel from other tools and what we know about changing offensive context – because it helps calibrate the starting point for those secondary discussions. It also forces me to focus on players I might otherwise ignore. Jacobs and Montgomery were not the types of backs I draft even when they look like small wins. It doesn’t fit my overall approach or my preferred tactics. But locating those values might be helpful to RotoViz subscribers who employ different strategies.

I broke this year’s article into two parts, first asking Can the Range of Outcomes Tool Find Discount Options for Ezekiel Elliott? Today we’re setting our sights higher. I want undervalued foundation backs. Not every ROO gem is a sure hit, but I’m going to recommend multiple ways to play the high-volume game.

If you want more points and a lower price tag than what you get with Najee Harris and Joe Mixon . . . you’ve come to the right place.

Other Entries in the RB Value Series

Want Upside? These 4 Young Backs Could Be Javonte Williams at a Fraction of the Cost
5 Veterans With Gaudy Peripherals Who Are Poised to Smash ADP
3 Small Gap Backfields, Including 2 of the Best Offenses in the NFL – Corbin Young
Superstars in Committees: How to Play Elite Muddled Backfields – Corbin Young
Discount Buying Opportunities? What History Tells Us – Corbin Young

The ROO Finds 3 Wildly Undervalued RB1 Options – Can It Beat the Humans?

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

Dynasty Workshop: 2023 Rookie Trades Leaving You Bankrupt? The Win-Faster, Win-Bigger Punt Approach

Trying to punt the startup but can’t get decent trades for 2023 first-round picks? Want to win bigger and faster than those trades would allow? Shawn Siegele dives into the perfect PCW draft for patient, yet aggressive, dynasty managers. As training camp progresses, new dynasty leagues are all the rage. You can join an RV TriFlex league or use the intel from these leagues to…...

Extreme Anchor RB and 18 Picks That Unlock Immense Upside in Underdog Tournaments

Shawn Siegele looks at the six core elements for building an Extreme Anchor RB dream team in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III tournament. The Underdog Dream Team series has been a blast to write, and this entry may be my new favorite. Ben Gretch and I recently drafted an Extreme Anchor RB team for Best Ball Mania III. The Stealing Bananas roster gives us a…...

Dynasty Workshop: 2023 Rookie Trades Leaving You Bankrupt? The Win-Faster, Win-Bigger Punt Approach

Trying to punt the startup but can’t get decent trades for 2023 first-round picks? Want to win bigger and faster than those trades would allow? Shawn Siegele dives into the perfect PCW draft for patient, yet aggressive, dynasty managers. As training camp progresses, new dynasty leagues are all the rage. You can join an RV TriFlex league or use the intel from these leagues to…...

Extreme Anchor RB and 18 Picks That Unlock Immense Upside in Underdog Tournaments

Shawn Siegele looks at the six core elements for building an Extreme Anchor RB dream team in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III tournament. The Underdog Dream Team series has been a blast to write, and this entry may be my new favorite. Ben Gretch and I recently drafted an Extreme Anchor RB team for Best Ball Mania III. The Stealing Bananas roster gives us a…...

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.