The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Here’s a free early week preview featuring the Thursday night game. Stay tuned for the full version later in the week.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Most fantasy gamers know that the Broncos have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. They gave up 177 yards to Breece Hall last week, and allowed over 200 to De’Von Achane in Week 3. What some may not know is that Denver is arguably worse against the pass.
In 2023, they rank dead last in EPA allowed per pass attempt, success rate allowed, and boom rate allowed. No team allows more total fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) on opponent passing attempts. The Chiefs bring their top-10 passing offense into a matchup in which they’ll be able to move the ball and score at will. Travis Kelce is listed as questionable but is apparently likely to play.
This game could get out of hand in a hurry, which may prompt Kansas City to turn to their running backs. Although Denver is worse against the pass, that doesn’t negate the fact that they are also dreadful against the run.
No team allows more opponent rushing efficiency. No team allows more yards before contact or a higher rate of evaded tackles. Only two teams allow more yards after contact. The Broncos are also No. 31 in EPA allowed per carry and, unsurprisingly, No. 28 in boom rate allowed. The Chiefs will have no problem running the ball, though I still expect them to rely on their passing game, at least to start.
While Kansas City is relatively forgiving to opposing rushing attacks on a per-carry basis, only five teams face fewer rushing attempts per game.
Only two give up less rushing EP. We should expect more of the same in this one, as it’s unlikely Denver will offer much resistance against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. The Broncos, like most teams against K.C., will have to pass to keep up.
Keeping up is a task made tougher by the fact that the Chiefs are No. 3 in passing success rate allowed and No. 5 in passing game FPOE allowed.
They are No. 7 in both EPA allowed and passing boom rate allowed.
Denver’s best hope to win this game is to use their rushing attack to keep the chains moving and keep Mahomes off the field. They do rank No. 3 in yards before contact, No. 11 in rushing success rate, and No. 9 in rushing boom rate, so there’s some possibility this game plan could succeed against a K.C. rushing defense that’s not the most stout. The good news is that Denver will have Javonte Williams back. His return plus the emergence of surprising (to some) rookie Jaleel McLaughlin gives the Broncos a number of weapons who can pick up yards and scores. This is probably not the most likely outcome — it’s far more likely Denver falls behind early and their passing game struggles to catch up — but it’s one possible path.
