The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Be sure to check out the early game coverage in Part 1.
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders
There’s no question New England has not looked strong in the post-Tom-Brady era. But the 2023 Patriots take that to a new level.
Only one team is worse at generating expected points added on passing plays. Only one team is worse at turning passes into big plays. And the only thing worse than the Patriots’ passing game . . . is the Patriots’ running game.
They find themselves at the bottom of the leaderboard in evasion rate, EPA per attempt, and boom rate. They are No. 31 in yards after contact, and No. 28 in rushing success rate. The one thing that could possibly save Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots’ running game is that the Raiders are not good at defending the run. Only four teams allow more yards after contact per carry, and only three allow a higher boom rate.
Las Vegas is somewhat better against the pass, though still below average in most areas. Whether New England decides to throw the ball often likely depends on how well their defense is playing against Jimmy Garoppolo and the Raiders. While Las Vegas’ peripherals are lacking, they are No. 7 in passing success rate and No. 3 in passing boom rate.
The Patriots don’t generate much pressure against opposing QBs, but they are an above average defensive unit against the pass in every other respect. Still, with time in the pocket, Garoppolo might be able to avoid some of the more costly mistakes we’ve seen him make and find his receivers for long gains and touchdowns.
In any case, Las Vegas’ chances of successfully running the ball are slim. The Raiders are a bottom-five rushing offense in almost every advanced metric, while the Patriots are a top-10 defense.
New England is susceptible to big rushing plays, but the Raiders have not been too good at generating them. It seems unlikely Las Vegas will be able to move the ball on the ground. The over/under for this game is only 41.5, but if the Raiders can put up some points through the air early on and force New England to throw, we could see more touchdowns than we might expect given the offensive quality of these teams.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Only three teams drop back to pass more than the Rams. Against a bungling Cardinals’ defense that gave up 31 points to the New York Giants, we will likely see their game plan revolve around getting the ball in the hands of their talented receivers.
This is Cooper Kupp’s second week of action, which means most of the Rams’ offensive numbers above don’t account for his presence. In any event, Arizona’s pass rush generates pressure on a league-worst 25% of opponent dropbacks. Matthew Stafford will have time to find his receivers for big plays. The Passing Game Matchup Rater especially likes Kupp and Tutu Atwell’s matchups, based on their alignment histories.
The Rams’ running game has produced some surprising on-field success, despite middling (or worse) peripherals. Kyren Williams gets an easy matchup against the defense that allows the highest rushing success rate in the league.
The Rams are No. 6 in EPA per rush attempt and No. 4 in success rate. While they are near the bottom of the league in yards after contact, it hasn’t kept them from moving the chains with their rushing attack. Arizona won’t stop them either.
All of this means that the Cardinals will have to drop back to pass fairly often. Los Angeles doesn’t present a difficult challenge in this regard.
Only three teams have a less aggressive pass rush. Only five allow a higher success rate on passing attempts. The Cardinals boast a strong offensive line, and their receivers are able to create separation. Against the Rams, we could see this translate into a boost in success rate and boom rate.
Normally, the Cardinals’ preference would be to run the ball as much as possible — they are one of the top rushing teams in the league according to many advanced metrics.
However, James Conner is primarily responsible for most of the metrics, and he will not play in Week 6. Keaontay Ingram and Emari Demercado will try to play up to Conner’s high standard, and L.A.’s run defense may help. They are No. 27 in yards before contact allowed, No. 22 in EPA allowed, and No. 24 in boom rate allowed.
