The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
- The 49ers’ offense is finally fully healthy (for the most part), and comes into a very winnable matchup against the Bucs’ pass defense. San Francisco is No. 1 in passing game FPOE, passing EPA per attempt, passing success rate, and passing boom rate.
- Tampa Bay doesn’t defend the pass particularly well. This explains why the 49ers are favored by almost two touchdowns. The Passing Matchup Rater agrees that this is an ideal environment for S.F.’s wide receivers.
- The 49ers are likely to lean on their receivers in this game (including Christian McCaffrey) because it could be difficult to get much going in the running game. Even though San Francisco has one of the top rushing attacks, the Buccaneers are No. 1 in rushing FPOE allowed, No. 2 in rushing boom rate allowed, and No. 3 in EPA allowed per rush attempt.
- The Buccaneers will also have a hard time running the ball, but that has less to do with the 49ers defense and more to do with the Bucs’ offense. They are No. 31 in EPA per rush attempt and No. 32 in rushing success rate.
- Rachaad White has looked better in recent weeks, but beyond the question about Tampa Bay’s rushing efficiency (No. 31) there’s also a question about how rushing touches they can afford to give White in this game. They will likely need to pass to keep pace with San Francisco’s offense.
- The Bucs have been good when passing the ball. They are No. 7 in EPA per pass attempt and No. 3 in passing boom rate. That said, the 49ers have a top-five defense in passing EPA allowed, passing boom rate allowed, and passing FPOE allowed. Yet Tampa Bay’s receivers are talented and could still make some big plays.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
- When the Jets faced the Bills in Week 1, Breece Hall rushed for 109 yards on his first two carries. Since that time, Buffalo’s rushing defense hasn’t improved much. The Bills are dead last in yards after contact allowed, No. 24 in evasion rate allowed, No. 23 in rushing boom rate allowed, and No. 26 in rushing FPOE allowed. Hall now plays a full-time role, so it’s not unreasonable to expect more fireworks.
- In any case, running against the Bills is the Jets’ best hope at winning this game. Not only are the Jets basically the worst in the league at throwing the ball (No. 32 in passing success rate and passing boom rate), but it’s New York’s interest to keep the clock running and limit the number of possessions Josh Allen has.
- Although the Jets play good defense against the pass, not many teams are as effective through the air as the Bills. They are No. 3 in passing success rate.
- That said, the Bills do face a tough test against the Jets’ pass defense and may opt to run the ball instead. Buffalo is No. 1 in EPA per rush attempt and No. 1 in rushing success rate, while the Jets are merely average at defending the run.
- It’s a testament to the Jets’ defense (and perhaps the weakness of the Bills’ rushing defense) that Buffalo is only favored by eight at home.
