The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.

Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.

Here’s a free early week preview featuring the Thursday night game. Stay tuned for the full version later in the week.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

• These teams have a combined record of 3-14, and it should be no surprise to anyone that this game carries an over/under of just 38.
• There are two standout units in this game, and they both belong to Chicago: The Bears’ rushing offense is No. 2 in the league in EPA per attempt. The Bears’ rushing defense is No. 1 in the league in EPA per attempt allowed.
• Chicago’s defensive prowess against opposing rushing attacks may not matter that much. The Bears are dead last in passing EPA allowed.
• Yet Chicago’s defensive ineptitude against the pass would be problematic if not for Carolina’s offensive ineptitude. Only three teams are worse in passing FPOE and passing boom rate.
• Among players with at least 100 pass attempts, only Matthew Stafford has as low a catchable target rate as Bryce Young. But Young is the only player in the bottom 10 with an average depth of throw below 6.4 yards, and he is well below that mark.

• In fact, only one other passer has as low an aDOT as Young — Bears’ QB Tyson Bagent. However, Bagent has a 68% on-target rate and a 78% catchable rate. No player with an aDOT below 7 yards has been nearly as inaccurate as Young.^[1]Kenny Pickett is probably closest, but even he was throwing the ball a full 1.4 yards further downfield.

• Even without Khalil Herbert and Justin Fields, the Bears have continued to run the ball well. In fact, if anything, they’ve been even more efficient, scoring rushing TDs at a higher rate and scoring more points per drive with Bagent under center than with Fields.

• This is not to say that Bagent should continue starting even when Fields is healthy. It’s only to point out that the elements of Chicago’s offense that make their rushing game work don’t necessarily depend on the individual personnel.
• Against Carolina, the Bears should have no problem keeping up these numbers. No team is worse than the Panthers in rushing EPA allowed or rushing boom rate allowed. They rank 25th in both FPOE and evasion rate allowed, 26th in yards after contact allowed, and 27th in success rate allowed.
• D’Onta Foreman will continue to get the starter treatment in Herbert’s absence, with Roschon Johnson and Darrynton Evans backing him up. Foreman’s 20 opportunities in Week 9 didn’t lead to a big fantasy day, but we’ve seen the ceiling he has in this offense after he put up 33 PPR points in Week 7 against Las Vegas. The Raiders at the time offered a similar matchup to the one Chicago will face in Week 10.