The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
- The Falcons are coming off one of their more surprising performances. Desmond Ridder attempted 40 passes against the Buccaneers, and Drake London turned his 11 targets into 172 yards. Kyle Pitts scored his second TD of the season. Bijan Robinson got involved with seven targets and 54 receiving yards.
- We saw this coming last week, to an extent. I mentioned it was the best matchup London had seen all season, and it was one of the best matchups for Pitts as well. However, Tampa Bay is the clearest pass funnel in the league, with one of the best rushing defenses and one of the worst passing defenses. Carolina is a bit different. London goes from his best matchup of the season to his worst the very next week.
- The problem is not so much that the Panthers are very strong against the pass — they are middling in the EPA-based metrics, but No. 6 at limiting opponent passing game FPOE. The bigger problem is that they are No. 2 in dropbacks faced and passing game EP faced. Opponents simply do not have to throw the ball often to beat them. Since “not throwing the ball often” is Atlanta’s specialty, we can expect a predictable game script.
- The Panthers are not bad against the run either, although do allow a higher evasion rate than all but one team. And they rank just 23rd in EPA allowed per rush attempt. Yet they are ninth in rushing success rate allowed and sixth in rushing boom rate allowed. While the Falcons will certainly test Carolina’s rush defense, Robinson might have difficulty finding open running lanes.
- Carolina’s best bet is also to run the ball — not because the matchup dictates it, but because they have to do everything they can to keep the ball out of Bryce Young’s hands. The Panthers are dead last in passing game FPOE, EPA per pass attempt, passing success rate, and passing boom rate.
- Young isn’t entirely responsible for the atrocious play of Carolina’s passing game. But even when we adjust for factors he can’t control, only two passers with at least 200 attempts are worse.
| Player | Comp% | Catchable% | On-Tgt% | Y/A | ANY/A | Y/G | IQR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 64.9% | 84.3% | 73.5% | 6.1 | 4.5 | 192.7 | 67.6 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 62.8% | 85.8% | 74.2% | 5.9 | 4.7 | 189.5 | 71.9 |
| Bryce Young | 58.5% | 80.0% | 67.4% | 5.3 | 3.3 | 182.7 | 72.0 |
- IQR is Sports Info Solutions’ way to account for elements a QB is not responsible for, and it’s kinder to Young than to some others. But he’s still among the worst in the league. His unadjusted metrics are almost unbelievably bad. It’s not included in the table above (except indirectly in ANY/A), but he also takes sacks at a higher rate than any QB apart from Justin Fields.
- In any event, the point is the Panthers would do well to lean on Chuba Hubbard. He underperformed against New Orleans, but had logged three straight positive FPOE games prior to last week.
