The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
- Sometimes, rather than colliding with the fabled immovable object, an unstoppable force faces no resistance whatsoever. Something like this is what will happen as the 49ers’ passing offense faces a Cardinals’ defense that ranks 30th in passing EPA allowed, 30th in passing success rate allowed, and 31st in passing boom rate allowed. San Francisco is No. 1 or No. 2 in all those metrics on the offensive side of the ball.
- The Cardinals’ task on offense would be tougher, if not for multiple injuries to San Francisco’s defense. While Arizona is in the bottom three in passing game FPOE, passing EPA, passing success rate, and passing boom rate, they may have a chance to gain yards and score points against a 49ers’ defense at half strength, making the possibility of a shootout slightly more likely. This game’s over/under of 48.5 reflects the fact that Vegas expects the Cardinals to be able to put up points. (Of course they’re still 12.5-point underdogs.)
- Nevertheless, the matchup favors an aerial approach by the 49ers. Arizona is good, not great, against the run — they are No. 14 in both rushing EPA allowed and rushing success rate allowed. But they are No. 4 in evasion rate allowed and No. 10 in yards after contact allowed. If Christian McCaffrey is going to have a big fantasy day, it may be more likely to happen as a receiver. (That said, never bet against a McCaffrey rushing TD.)
- The Cardinals will also be more likely to take to the air, not least in order to keep up with an efficient San Francisco offense. Injuries to multiple positions notwithstanding, the 49ers are better at stopping the run than the pass. But the most telling stat is that they face fewer rushing attempts than any other team, and only one team faces less total rushing EP.
