The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
- The Bengals’ offense hasn’t missed a beat without Joe Burrow over the last two weeks. They’ve scored 34 points in each of the last two games. Jake Browning has completed at least 75% of his passes in each game, with three passing TDs and two rushing TDs over that span. Over the last two weeks, only Brock Purdy has a higher IQR (Sports Info Solutions’ adjusted quarterback rating that accounts for things out of a QB’s control).
- However, the Vikings’ pass defense presents a difficult test for Browning. No team allows a lower passing boom rate. Only one team allows a lower passing success rate. If you need proof, in Week 14 they shut out a Raiders team that just scored 63 points.
- The Bengals’ rushing game has also been better than we expect. Not only has Joe Mixon been surprisingly efficient, but Chase Brown is emerging as a legitimate RB2.
- It’s true, most of Brown’s efficiency has come on a 54-yard touchdown pass. But Brown has been the superior runner over the last two games.
- Justin Jefferson is listed as questionable, but is expected to suit up. He and former college teammate Ja’Marr Chase will both be catching passes from backup QBs. In Jefferson’s case, it will be the fourth QB to start a game for the Vikings. The battle for the top spot in dynasty startups may underwhelm as Nick Mullens attempts to navigate his first 2023 start.
- On the other hand, Mullens could hardly ask for an easier matchup. The Bengals are No. 31 in passing success rate allowed over the last eight weeks. They are No. 29 in both FPOE allowed per game and EPA allowed per pass attempt. They are No. 25 in passing boom rate allowed.
- The Vikings will also be without their usual starting running back, as Alexander Mattison nurses an ankle injury. Ty Chandler will start in his stead, and could be a central part of the Vikings’ game plan. Cincinnati ranks 30th in rushing success rate allowed. Only one team allows more yards before contact, and only four allow more rushing FPOE.
