Week 2 of the Playoffs also brings Part 2 of the FFPC Playoff Challenge. The rules are a little different, and the prizes are a little smaller, but the games are more important and arguably less predictable.
The Divisional Round Playoff Challenge differs from the original version in that it only includes eight roster spots. There are only eight teams remaining in the playoffs, so every team will be a part of every roster. There are no kicker slots, no D/ST slots, and no teams to fade.
Using the same methodology we used for the previous contest, we can also come up with some projections and optimal lineups for the Divisional Round. The projections below are based on a RotoViz Screener model that weights recent weeks slightly more heavily, and an adjusted version of Neil Paine’s playoff probabilities. (As before, we’re counting the Super Bowl as two games to account for the double-scoring bonus.)
Projections
| PLAYER | TEAM | Points | Adj. Games | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 23.14 | 2.90 | 67.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 21.80 | 2.75 | 60.0 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 19.53 | 2.75 | 53.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 19.58 | 2.09 | 40.9 |
| George Kittle | SF | 14.74 | 2.75 | 40.5 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 14.33 | 2.75 | 39.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | 13.36 | 2.75 | 36.7 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | 12.51 | 2.90 | 36.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 21.44 | 1.69 | 36.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 19.68 | 1.75 | 34.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 18.53 | 1.75 | 32.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 14.25 | 2.09 | 29.8 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 20.18 | 1.46 | 29.4 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | 9.95 | 2.90 | 28.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | 18.95 | 1.51 | 28.6 |
| Jordan Love | GB | 19.22 | 1.46 | 28.1 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | 9.46 | 2.90 | 27.4 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | 15.50 | 1.69 | 26.2 |
| James Cook | BUF | 12.52 | 2.09 | 26.2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 13.76 | 1.75 | 24.1 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 14.08 | 1.69 | 23.8 |
| David Montgomery | DET | 13.42 | 1.75 | 23.5 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 15.47 | 1.51 | 23.3 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL | 8.02 | 2.90 | 23.3 |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 15.41 | 1.46 | 22.5 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 13.25 | 1.69 | 22.4 |
| Rachaad White | TB | 14.53 | 1.51 | 21.9 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 10.30 | 2.09 | 21.5 |
| Gabe Davis | BUF | 10.10 | 2.09 | 21.1 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | 7.22 | 2.90 | 20.9 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | 6.99 | 2.90 | 20.3 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 12.54 | 1.51 | 18.9 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | 6.46 | 2.90 | 18.7 |
| Jordan Mason | SF | 6.37 | 2.75 | 17.5 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | 11.59 | 1.46 | 17.0 |
| Nelson Agholor | BAL | 5.61 | 2.90 | 16.3 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | 10.94 | 1.46 | 16.0 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | 10.76 | 1.46 | 15.8 |
| Bo Melton | GB | 10.54 | 1.46 | 15.4 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | 5.61 | 2.75 | 15.4 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | 10.33 | 1.46 | 15.1 |
| Christian Watson | GB | 10.15 | 1.46 | 14.9 |
| Devin Singletary | HOU | 10.03 | 1.46 | 14.6 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | 9.79 | 1.46 | 14.3 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | 6.84 | 2.09 | 14.3 |
| Josh Reynolds | DET | 7.93 | 1.75 | 13.9 |
| Latavius Murray | BUF | 6.63 | 2.09 | 13.9 |
| Justin Watson | KC | 7.21 | 1.69 | 12.2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | KC | 7.02 | 1.69 | 11.9 |
| Cade Otton | TB | 7.80 | 1.51 | 11.8 |
| Dameon Pierce | HOU | 8.05 | 1.46 | 11.7 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | 5.56 | 2.09 | 11.6 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | 6.29 | 1.75 | 11.0 |
This data recommends a fairly unsurprising way to play the contest. Your high-value positions — QB and RB — should be occupied by teams most likely to make the Super Bowl. The lower value positions — the WR and TE slots — are best for teams you don’t expect to win in the Divisional Round.
| SLOT | PLAYER | TEAM | TOTAL POINTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 67.1 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | 60.0 |
| RB | Isiah Pacheco | KC | 26.2 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 32.5 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | BUF | 29.8 |
| TE | Tucker Kraft | GB | 14.3 |
| FLEX | Mike Evans | TB | 23.3 |
| FLEX | Nico Collins | HOU | 22.5 |
Yet, as before, the way you expect the playoff games to play out has a drastic effect on how you should construct lineups. We’ll explore some of those scenarios below.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are favored by 9.5, but that likely overstates their true likelihood of winning this game. While Baltimore has one of the toughest pass defenses, they have already ruled out cornerback Marlon Humphrey. That said, the Ravens’ defense hasn’t missed a beat when he’s been off the field this season — by some measures they’ve actually been better.
Ravens Defense With and Without Marlon Humphrey
Yet no team is coming in hotter than the Texans. C.J. Stroud passed for 274 yards and three touchdowns against what we thought was one of the toughest pass defenses in the league. Additionally, Baltimore has one of the least effective rushing defenses in the league, ranking 31st in both evasion rate and yards after contact allowed. Houston meanwhile is No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed. If the Texans can control the ball and score when they have chances, this could be a much closer game than Vegas expects.
If we assume Houston upsets Baltimore, that changes the optimal lineup in a dramatic way.
| SLOT | PLAYER | TEAM | TOTAL POINTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 51.9 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | 60.0 |
| RB | Isiah Pacheco | KC | 26.2 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 32.5 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | BUF | 29.8 |
| TE | Isaiah Likely | BAL | 10.0 |
| FLEX | Mike Evans | TB | 23.3 |
| FLEX | Jayden Reed | GB | 17.0 |
Of course, this lineup doesn’t make any other assumptions about the other games on the slate. Let’s take a closer look at those matchups and then explore some other scenarios.
