Welcome to Dynasty Spotlight. The purpose of this series is to put one veteran dynasty commodity under the microscope to analyze how he is viewed on the market, how this compares to his abilities as a player based on predictive stats, and possibly make recommendations on whether we should be spending or selling in the current marketplace. The subject of this edition is Cincinnati Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow.
JOE “EXOTIC,” THE TIGER KING
Burrow was chosen first overall in 2019, and within two seasons, he had guided the hapless Bengals to their first Super Bowl since 1989. Since his sophomore season, the Bengals have remained a legitimate AFC contender. Burrow has spent a significant portion of his tenure injured, missing six games each in 2019 and 2023. In the seasons in between, Burrow has two top-eight finishes. Today, Burrow is valued at QB6 in Superflex dynasty leagues according to KeepTradeCut’s crowdsourced survey algorithm. Let’s dig into some of the most predictive data and see if we think that’s a fair price.
SPOTLIGHT ON BURROW’S PRODUCTION AND MARKET VALUE
Burrow scores well in four of the most predictive metrics for QBs: fantasy points (PPR), passing yards (paYDS), passing touchdowns (paTDS), and passing fantasy points over expectation (paFPOE). There have been 16 instances by QBs since 2020 in which they have scored at least 300 PPR, 4,000 paYDS, 30 paTDS, and 20 paFPOE. Burrow has logged two of these, even though these are also his only two full seasons. Another relatively predictive metric is QB rating (QBR), and Burrow is sixth among active players in career QBR, the youngest player in the group.
Burrow is no longer young, but he is not old. At 27, he still has around ten years left in the league based on historical career arcs for similar QBs (most dynasty leagues disband within that time frame). It could be argued the hit to Burrow’s value, based on his injury history, has already most likely occurred, and from here, his value is less likely to deteriorate drastically again until his early thirties. It is conceivable it could rise, especially in Superflex leagues, where fantasy managers are rabid for elite QB play. That would likely only happen with an imminent elite season, something Burrow has never quite had. Nevertheless, despite not reaching these heights yet, Burrow does profile as someone capable of them.
If we calibrate the RotoViz Screener sliders to find 2020-2023 QBs who have met Burrow’s career thresholds in these same four metrics—1100 PPR, 13,000 paYDS, 90 paTDS, and 65 paFPOE—we find only four cohorts: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Kirk Cousins. Again, Burrow is the youngest of the group. His missed time due to injury only makes these statistics more impressive.
