An embarrassment of riches in the receiving game is never a bad problem to have for an NFL quarterback, but it can lead to some difficult decisions for fantasy managers. While there are some interesting situations playing out in both Houston and Chicago, perhaps the most crowded — and potentially most ambiguous — receiving corps in the league for 2024 may reside in Green Bay. With Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks all having two years or less of NFL experience, but all being drafted within five rounds of each other on Underdog, there are plenty of mouths to feed on the Packers wide receiver depth chart — and plenty of opportunity cost to go along with it. Add in two intriguing second-year tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, and the situation gets even more convoluted. With all of the potential among the Green Bay pass catchers, should we be expecting a few names to rise above the rest, or is this a passing offense to avoid due to its weekly unpredictability?
Green Bay Passing Volume
Since Matt LaFluer has become head coach of the Packers, the offense has run at a consistent pace regardless of whether the QB has been Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love.
Last season with Love, the offense averaged one additional play per 60 minutes compared to Rodgers’ four years with LaFleur, but overall we should know what to expect out of the Green Bay offense at this point.
Unfortunately, that predictability includes an overall play count per 60 minutes and pass percentage that has ranked among the bottom-10 teams in the league across LaFleur’s tenure. Using the Packers’ average of 36 pass plays per game from 2019 through 2023 as very strong indicator of 2024 passing volume, over a 17-game sample that would give Green Bay 612 targets for the upcoming season. With six intriguing weapons — seven if you want to include Bo Melton — all vying for targets from Love next season, no matter which way we slice up the pie, it does not look like there will be enough volume for everyone to produce at their current Underdog ADPs.
The good news is that Love was efficient at all levels of the field last season. The only knock is that just 11.7% of his total attempts were directed to the middle of the field, potentially limiting the receivers who do the majority of their work in that area of the field — particularly deep.
