2 Surprise RBs Outperform and Rookie WRs Keep Making History: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 15

Blair Andrews
December 23, 2020

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 15. This week, we crown a new dynasty WR1. How does he compare to dynasty WR1s from years past?

For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article.

Even Bad Players Are Sometimes Good

We’ve profiled J.D. McKissic several times in this column, and not just because he’s the star of our extreme Zero-RB FFPC Main Event team that’s currently No. 30 overall. It’s also because he’s consistently been among the weekly leaders in running back receiving expected points.

While McKissic has been among the best in the league at getting targets and receiving EP, he has been among the worst in the league at converting those into fantasy points . . . until last week. Week 15 was a new career high for McKissic in fantasy scoring, and also only the third time all season he’s had positive FPOE.

McKissic was not the RB leader in Week 15 receiving EP, however. At least for one week, David Johnson was able to revive an element of his game we hadn’t seen since the early part of 2019.

Last week actually marked the highest reEP total Johnson has seen in a game since his breakout 2016 season. It’s nice to see Johnson reminding us of the player he once was, but ultimately this likely an aberration. Johnson is already nearing the tail end of the RB career arc we should expect.

I’ll Never Tire of Talking About Rookie Wide Receivers

Not much more needs to be said about Justin Jefferson, arguably the new dynasty WR1. He’s currently the WR8 overall, and ranks No. 5 in FPOE. And he’s only gotten better as the season has gone on. Since Week 10, he’s averaging over 20 points per game. No other rookie has been as efficient as Jefferson through Week 15 since 2000. The list of players just below him in total FPOE is littered with former dynasty WR1s.

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Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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