The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Here’s an early week preview featuring the Thursday night game. Stay tuned for the full version later in the week.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints
The Jaguars tend to funnel opponents to the air — they are No. 27 in dropbacks faced and No. 28 in total passing game EP faced. Yet they are also good at defending the pass. Only four teams allow big plays on a higher percentage of pass attempts.
The Saints are a top-10 team in both dropbacks and total EP, yet they aren’t a particularly strong passing team, ranking 25th in total FPOE and 26th in average wide receiver separation. Considering the relative strength of Jacksonville’s defense, this doesn’t appear on the surface to be a matchup Derek Carr and his receivers can exploit. The only problem: there is a reason Jacksonville’s opponents like to pass.
The Jaguars are a top-eight team in all but a handful of advanced rush defense metrics. The Saints, meanwhile, are near the bottom of the league in those same metrics. The one area in which Jacksonville is below average — evasion rate — happens to be New Orleans’ biggest weakness on offense. They are also No. 28 in EPA per rush attempt, No. 25 in rushing success rate, and No. 26 in both rushing boom rate and rushing FPOE.
The Saints’ only way to move the ball is going to be to throw it. Despite the generally unfavorable team-level numbers above, New Orleans’ WRs do have positive matchups, according to recent alignment trends.
On the other side, the Jaguars have a much more difficult matchup.
Only two teams allow less total passing game FPOE or a lower success rate than the Saints. Only one team plays tighter coverage against WRs. Jacksonville’s top-eight offensive line will give Trevor Lawrence more than enough time to throw the ball, but the Saints’ strengths on defense are in their secondary. Jacksonville’s mediocre advanced passing stats suggest they will have some difficulty moving the ball through the air.
Unfortunately, things won’t be much easier on the ground.
The Jaguars are in the bottom third of the league in EPA per rush attempt, rushing success rate, and rushing boom rate. The Saints, however, are a top-three team in both yards after contact allowed and evasion rate allowed. Only one team allows less rushing FPOE than New Orleans. Travis Etienne is currently the RB3 overall, and is No. 5 among RBs in total FPOE. Most of Etienne’s efficiency so far has come on rushing attempts. But it may be difficult for him to sustain this efficiency in Week 7.
Jacksonville enters the game with a strong offense, but against the Saints’ elite defense, they have a Vegas-implied team total of only around 19.5. This is reflected in the Game Level Similarity Projections, which have Lawrence outside the top-16 WRs. The Saints’ offense has not been as strong, but Jacksonville affords New Orleans’ receivers some opportunities to make plays. Indeed, according the Strength of Schedule Streaming tool, the Saints’ WRs have the only positive matchup in this game.
