The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers got their first win of the season in Week 8, and look to build on that momentum against a struggling Indianapolis defense. The Colts have surrendered more points than any NFL team, and a glance at their advanced defensive stats reveals part of the reason for that. The Colts are No. 20 in passing EPA allowed per attempt and No. 22 in rushing EPA allowed per attempt. No team gives up more fantasy points over expectation in the rushing game. The Panthers’ rushing offense hasn’t been strong, but Chuba Hubbard — who appears to have taken Miles Sanders’ job after the erstwhile starter all but accepted responsibility for his poor play — should be able to outplay his opportunity.
Bryce Young and the Panthers’ receivers have been busy in 2023 — only one team averages more dropbacks per game and only five average more total passing game EP. While the Colts aren’t strong against the run, there’s a good chance we see Carolina continue to pass the ball at a high rate. For one thing, the Colts aren’t that strong against the pass either. For another — and this is the other reason Indianapolis gives up a lot of points — the Colts’ offense has been able to put points on the board quickly.
They rank No. 10 in rushing boom rate and No. 3 in rushing FPOE. And they’ve done this without Jonathan Taylor for a good chunk of the young season. Meanwhile, the Panthers are dead last in rushing boom rate allowed and EPA per rush attempt allowed. They are No. 30 in rushing FPOE allowed and rushing success rate allowed. So far in 2023 we haven’t yet seen the version of Taylor who scored 77 points above expectation en route to an overall RB1 finish in his sophomore season. But there aren’t many better matchups than the Panthers to help that version to emerge.
Carolina is almost as bad at defending the pass. We should expect Gardner Minshew to test the Panthers’ 30th-ranked pass rush and try to make plays downfield. Josh Downs has emerged as a reliable receiving weapon over the last four weeks, and helps to free up space for Michael Pittman. The veteran still leads the way in target share, but given Downs’ efficiency so far in his rookie season, I’d expect the gap between them to shrink. Hopefully the rookie plays successfully through his knee injury today.
