Kevin Szafraniec breaks down Javonte Williams’ hot start to the 2025 season and uses RotoViz’s and SIS’ advanced stats to determine if his current production is sustainable.
In a season that has been full of redemption arcs, Javonte Williams’ bounceback may be the most unexpected of them all. Expectations weren’t necessarily high after he signed a one-year, $3.0M deal at the start of free agency to join the Cowboys, especially after Miles Sanders was added later in free agency and Dallas selected Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah in the draft.
Following a breakout rookie season in 2021, a catastrophic knee injury stunted Williams’ career four games into his second year in the NFL. Although he was able to return and play in 16 games in 2023, he was never the same over the remainder of his tenure in Denver, putting up back-to-back PPR RB30 seasons as his involvement in the offense steadily declined.
For as much of a fantasy darling as Williams was as a rookie, he was never actually an efficient player at any point during his time in Denver. He didn’t have a single season with positive fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) and failed to ever rank higher than 134th at the running back position in FPOE.
If Williams had any saving grace over the past couple of seasons, it was his ability as a receiver. At no point in his career has Williams fallen below a 10% target share, including two seasons with matching 13% target shares in 2023 and 2024. Outside of his injury-shortened 2022 season, Williams never saw fewer than 53 targets, with his career high of 70 coming in his final season with the Broncos.
Given Williams’ career trajectory over the past two seasons, we could be forgiven for being a bit skeptical of his RB5 performance in Week 1, in which his 3.5 yards per carry was counterbalanced by two touchdowns. But then he came out in Week 2 and finished as the RB4 for the week while putting up almost 100 yards at a 5.4-yard clip. And the story has pretty much been the same all the way through this past Sunday, when Williams was the driving force of the Cowboys’ big win over the Commanders.
Seven games into the season, and the only team that has been able to hold Williams in check has been the Panthers in Week 6. Otherwise, he hasn’t finished lower than RB15 in any week, breaking off big plays with regularity and looking like one of the toughest runners in the NFL.
| Week | Opponent | PPR | PPR Rk | EP | FPOE | RuAtt | RuYd | YPC | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | YPR | RecTD | PPR/Opp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 20.4 | 5 | 17.9 | 2.5 | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1.13 |
| 2 | NYG | 25.0 | 4 | 18.6 | 6.4 | 18 | 97 | 5.4 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 | 1.00 |
| 3 | CHI | 14.2 | 15 | 13.8 | 0.4 | 10 | 76 | 7.6 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | 0.95 |
| 4 | GB | 19.0 | 14 | 22.6 | -3.6 | 20 | 85 | 4.2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0.83 |
| 5 | NYJ | 26.9 | 6 | 17.3 | 9.6 | 16 | 135 | 8.4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1.49 |
| 6 | CAR | 8.4 | 27 | 20.1 | -11.7 | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 |
| 7 | WAS | 18.8 | 9 | 16.8 | 2.0 | 19 | 116 | 6.1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.82 |
Based on Williams’ prior seasons in Denver, I began fading him this summer when his price tag rose into the 10th round, eventually landing on the younger and (what was perceived at the time to be the) more exciting option in Blue.
As skeptical as I was of Williams over the first few weeks of the season, the results we are seeing are difficult to argue with. It may have taken three years, but he is finally showing fantasy managers that he still has some of the juice that made him such a highly coveted asset just a few short years ago.
So how exactly has Williams put together his career renaissance, and what are the chances that he can keep it up the rest of the season?
