Kevin Szafraniec analyzes the last five years of historical best ball data in the Win the Flex App to find the best areas of drafts for selecting quarterbacks.
Back in May, I did a position-by-position deep dive into historical trends of the FFPC’s Best Ball Tournament with the help of our Win Rate Explorer (WRE) and Roster Construction Explorer (RCE) tools. While scoring information is a feature of the RCE, the vast majority of the information in that series focused on win rates.
The Win the Flex App (WTF) allows us to look at roster building based on overall scoring via projections based on historical ADP and positional production. Here is how Blair explained it when the tool debuted in 2019:
The basic idea behind the tool is to get a sense of how many fantasy points we should expect a player to score based purely on positional ADP. How much does the first running back drafted typically score? How much does the 10th RB drafted typically score? By looking at historical fantasy points scored based on ADP we automatically account for projection error while also taking advantage of the wisdom of crowds. The projections aren’t what you’d expect to see for the top-ranked players at each position, but that’s because they’re aware of how often we get things wrong. These projections don’t assume ADP is a perfect predictor. Rather, they only assume that the future is going to look roughly like the past.
With the WTF, we can compare the projected scoring of all four positions against one another, or we can examine each individual position against their first non-starter baseline.
Although quarterbacks are not eligible for the flex in single-QB formats, the WTF still has a wealth of actionable information for the position. By analyzing the equity and value over baseline of QBs compared to other positions across drafts, we have a better chance of identifying the pockets when investing in signal callers is the most appealing.
In this exercise, we will focus on the FFPC’s single-QB best ball contests. For those who are unfamiliar, this format features 20-round drafts, tight-end premium scoring (1.5 points per TE reception and 1.0 PPR for all other positions), and starting lineups consisting of one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, and two standard flex spots.
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