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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Target Projections: Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe and other Late-Round Values

We’ve come to the final installment of my series going down the wider receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12, 12-24, 25-36, 37-48, and this year’s rookie class. Lumping all that we haven’t covered into one final analysis: WR ranks 49-102.1 This includes all WRs for whom we have composite target projections.  (back) This includes all WRs for whom we have composite target projections…....

eric decker injury

Target Projections: Eric Decker, Torrey Smith and the Rest of Tier Four

I’m working my way down the wide receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12, 12-24, 25-36, and this year’s rookie class. Now, I’m moving to the fourth-tier WRs with positional ADP ranks of 37-48. The fourth tier includes the young (Breshad Perriman, DeVante Parker, and Davante Adams) the old (Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, and Larry Fitzgerald), and some in-between. Our target projections help us identify a lot more value here than in previous tiers, and I think we may have at least a couple potential WR2’s in the mix…....

Target Projections: Martavis Bryant, Allen Robinson and the Rest of the Third Tier

I’m working my way down the wide receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12, 12-24, and this year’s rookie class. Now, I’m moving to the third-tier WRs with positional ADP ranks of 25-36. The third tier includes much hyped potential break-out like Martavis Bryant, Allen Robinson, and Nelson Agholor, plus former top-15 producers like DeSean Jackson, Roddy White, and Vincent Jackson…....

Target Projections – TY Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders and the Rest of the Second Tier

I’m working my way down the wide receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12 and this year’s rookie class. Now, I’m moving to the second-tier WRs with positional ADP ranks of 13-24. The second tier includes 2014’s break-out stars like TY Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, and Golden Tate, plus former top-5 producers like Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson. This is one of the more interesting groups because hitting on the right one gives you a tremendous advantage our the rest of your league: a WR1 at a WR2 price. But you can’t simply swing for the fences on…...

Target Projections – Assessing Top-Tier Wide Receivers

Yesterday I used our staff composite target projections, which were created with the Projection Machine App, for this year’s rookie wide receivers in an attempt to gauge the likelihood they’ll live up to current ADPs. The exercise pointed us towards a few undervalued receivers that are likely to get more targets than most expect. I figured we could apply the same analysis to veterans, and start with the wide receivers with ADPs in the top-12, or guys currently priced as WR1’s. For context, here again is the plot for targets and WR PPR ranks from 2013 & 2014…....

Finding Wide Receiver Value with Staff Target Projections

I had a little twitter conversation earlier today with Rotoworld’s fantasy football savant and friend of the site Evan Silva about how high I was on Breshad Perriman. I couldn’t quite articulate in 140 characters why I liked him more in redraft than his rookie counterpart Nelson Agholor…....

Buy, Sell, or Hold: Jerick McKinnon Edition

All signs are that Adrian Peterson will begrudgingly return the Vikings. The NFL Draft came and went without a trade and Peterson is reportedly returning to Vikings’ OTAs today. The 2015 situation is now fairly clear for Peterson dynasty owners, but what does this mean for the break-out candidate and RotoViz favorite Jerick McKinnon? Value on the Downswing McKinnon was an intriguing but speculative pick in dynasty startup and rookie drafts last year. Peterson’s suspension, combined with the uninspiring play of backfield-mate Matt Asiatta boosted McKinnon value in early 2015 as it was seen as a real possibility that Peterson had payed his last down in…...

Will the Uber-Efficient Martavis Bryant Break Out in 2015?

I recently wrote an article about Davante Adams that specifically addressed how inefficient Adams was as a rookie and what implied for his chance of success in year two. I based the analysis on a new metric of receiver efficiency: Relative AYA (adjusted yards per attempt). Looking beyond Adams, I figured it would be a fruitful exercise size up the entire list of 2014’s rookies for potential second-year breakouts. Martavis Bryant is a name that jumped off the page as he was extremely efficient relative to other Steelers wide receivers, even Antonio Brown. Earlier this offseason, Fantasy Douche gave you eight reason why you should…...

Will Davante Adams Break Out? A New Efficiency Metric Might Offer a Clue

I like to mess around with the awesome suite of RotoViz Apps, in particular the AYA App is great to see how efficient a quarterback is throwing to all his receiving options. While going through all the big-name QBs I found lots of receivers that were either more or less efficient than I thought they would be. This led me to take a deeper look at how a receiver’s efficiency versus that of his teammates (what I’m calling Relative AYA) affects future performance. I looked at it a few different ways, and was eventually blown away by Relative AYA’s implications…...

Karlos Williams is the Perfect Late-Round Rookie Pick

Using price relationship, I’ve recently pointed to Devin Funchess and Tyler Lockett as potentially underpriced rookie wide receivers, and warned that we should proceed with caution when looking at where to draft this year’s top tight end prospect Maxx Williams. When reviewing the NFL draft/dynasty rookie draft relationship for rookie running backs, Karlos Williams popped up as hugely undervalued. I can understand why drafters aren’t high on Williams: His production was fairly paltry; he’s buried behind four RBs in BUF, including the recently re-signed LeSean McCoy; he was only drafted in the fifth round; and before the Combine he was seen as a potential UDFA…....

Maxx Williams: Proceed with Caution

I agree with Peter Reither that Maxx Williams is kind of a big deal based on his fantastic collegiate production; I take note that Shawn Siegele had Williams at 2.02 of his post-combine rookie mock; I also recognize that he was head-and-shoulders above other tight ends at number 17 overall in our RotoViz post-draft rookie rankings. That said, Williams came across as a negative outlier in my NFL draft position versus dynasty rookie draft ADP analysis. For as great as a prospect as we think Williams is, he still wasn’t drafted until the end of the second round, lower than four TEs in…...

Devin Funchess is Dorial Green-Beckham at Half the Price

We’ve spilt a lot of ink around RotoViz recently fawning over Dorial Green-Beckham. Is he a top-five, or even the number-one dynasty rookie pick? Fantasy Douche himself has wondered if Green-Beckham is secretly the most athletic receiver in the class. Considerably less time1 has been spent discussing Devin Funchess. But the more you look into the collegiate production, measurables, and next-level opportunity that Green-Beckham and Funchess have, the more Funchess looks like at least an equal. Now, consider that Funchess was drafted literally one pick after Green-Beckham in the NFL draft yet is going way later in rookie dynasty drafts, and Funchess…...

Cha-Ching: Nelson Agholor and Breshad Perriman are Post-Draft Equity Stars

Yesterday I posted an update of rookie running backs contrasting pre- and post-draft ADPs. I’ve done the same here for rookie wide receivers, and the results are both similar (almost universal ADP appreciation) and different (a couple are head-and-shoulders above the rest). As I mentioned in the rookie RB post, these visualization are based on redraft ADPs, but likely have implications for dynasty, at least from a perspective of market value, which can be greatly affected by a rookie’s first-year success…....

Melvin Gordon is the Top Rookie Running Back and More Post-Draft Analysis

We’re only a few days past the NFL draft and rookie valuations are moving quickly. It’s a little difficult to get a substantial sample to gauge post-draft ADPs, but Fantasy Douche has the data from around 35 dynasty rookie drafts. We also have a goldmine of public redraft data from My Fantasy League MFL10s. I scraped all the MFL10 draft picks since last Sunday, and we have around 20 picks for each player, a decent sample. Getting this data first and presenting it in a easily digestible fashion is what I’m doing here. Especially for running backs, redraft ADPs can…...

Finding Underpriced Rookie Wide Receivers like Devin Funchess and Tyler Lockett

Yesterday I took a look at the 2015 rookie running back class and identified where they should be taken in post-draft MFL10s based upon the historical relationship between draft position and redraft ADP. I also used updated rookie opportunity scores (OS) that account for the newly added rookies’ ADPs. I’m going to go through a similar exercise with 2015 rookie wide receivers, and I find a few underpriced values we should accumulate before the broader market catches on. While this post is looking a redraft PPR ADPs, it also has value in dynasty. You can think about pre-draft redraft ADPs as…...

How Early Can You Draft TJ Yeldon and Other Rookie Runnings Backs?

The NFL draft is over and we finally know where our favorite rookie running backs are going to be suiting up in the fall. If you’re like me and are planning on firing up a handful of My Fantasy League MFL10s this week, you’d like to know exactly where to draft risers like TJ Yeldon and the rest of the 2015 rookie RBs. One way we can identify where to target each rookie is by looking at the ADPs of past rookie RBs drafted in the same range, then narrowing that range based on how much opportunity they will likely have in year one. To do…...

Opportunity Scores: How Breshad Perriman Could Be 2015’s Kelvin Benjamin

The first round of the NFL Draft is officially in the books and fantasy football degenerates worldwide now have some fresh meat to chew on for the next four months. Over the course of the last few weeks, I explored the relationship between passing-game ADPs in the search for potential arbitrage opportunities. I eventually quantified the opportunity for rookie wide receivers in different landing spots based on current receivers’ ADP strength, or lack thereof. Now that we know where a handful of the top WR prospects have landed, let’s take another look at receiver opportunity scores and assess their chances for first-year…...

The Eagles Should Trade for Johnny Manziel, Not Marcus Mariota

This post is really more about the implications of Fantasy Douche’s YOLO quarterback strategy than specifically Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel. But I think the choice between acquiring Mariota or Manziel is a good illustration of taking the traditional franchise QB path or going YOLO. For those who haven’t read any previous YOLO QB articles, here’s an explainer from PapaViz:…...

Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs that are viewed much more favorably by drafters than their receivers should provide less receiving competition and more opportunity for a rookie receiver. Unfortunately, we do not have a proxy for drafters’ prospective view of…...

Playing the Odds: Opportunity Knocks for DeVante Parker

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and the inputs are limited, but it gave me some data to use in conjunction with my receiver opportunity scores to calculate a probabilistic estimate of how much production opportunity each top rookie wide receiver will have…...

Target Projections: Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe and other Late-Round Values

We’ve come to the final installment of my series going down the wider receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12, 12-24, 25-36, 37-48, and this year’s rookie class. Lumping all that we haven’t covered into one final analysis: WR ranks 49-102.1 This includes all WRs for whom we have composite target projections.  (back) This includes all WRs for whom we have composite target projections…....

eric decker injury

Target Projections: Eric Decker, Torrey Smith and the Rest of Tier Four

I’m working my way down the wide receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12, 12-24, 25-36, and this year’s rookie class. Now, I’m moving to the fourth-tier WRs with positional ADP ranks of 37-48. The fourth tier includes the young (Breshad Perriman, DeVante Parker, and Davante Adams) the old (Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, and Larry Fitzgerald), and some in-between. Our target projections help us identify a lot more value here than in previous tiers, and I think we may have at least a couple potential WR2’s in the mix…....

Target Projections: Martavis Bryant, Allen Robinson and the Rest of the Third Tier

I’m working my way down the wide receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12, 12-24, and this year’s rookie class. Now, I’m moving to the third-tier WRs with positional ADP ranks of 25-36. The third tier includes much hyped potential break-out like Martavis Bryant, Allen Robinson, and Nelson Agholor, plus former top-15 producers like DeSean Jackson, Roddy White, and Vincent Jackson…....

Target Projections – TY Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders and the Rest of the Second Tier

I’m working my way down the wide receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12 and this year’s rookie class. Now, I’m moving to the second-tier WRs with positional ADP ranks of 13-24. The second tier includes 2014’s break-out stars like TY Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, and Golden Tate, plus former top-5 producers like Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson. This is one of the more interesting groups because hitting on the right one gives you a tremendous advantage our the rest of your league: a WR1 at a WR2 price. But you can’t simply swing for the fences on…...

Target Projections – Assessing Top-Tier Wide Receivers

Yesterday I used our staff composite target projections, which were created with the Projection Machine App, for this year’s rookie wide receivers in an attempt to gauge the likelihood they’ll live up to current ADPs. The exercise pointed us towards a few undervalued receivers that are likely to get more targets than most expect. I figured we could apply the same analysis to veterans, and start with the wide receivers with ADPs in the top-12, or guys currently priced as WR1’s. For context, here again is the plot for targets and WR PPR ranks from 2013 & 2014…....

Finding Wide Receiver Value with Staff Target Projections

I had a little twitter conversation earlier today with Rotoworld’s fantasy football savant and friend of the site Evan Silva about how high I was on Breshad Perriman. I couldn’t quite articulate in 140 characters why I liked him more in redraft than his rookie counterpart Nelson Agholor…....

Buy, Sell, or Hold: Jerick McKinnon Edition

All signs are that Adrian Peterson will begrudgingly return the Vikings. The NFL Draft came and went without a trade and Peterson is reportedly returning to Vikings’ OTAs today. The 2015 situation is now fairly clear for Peterson dynasty owners, but what does this mean for the break-out candidate and RotoViz favorite Jerick McKinnon? Value on the Downswing McKinnon was an intriguing but speculative pick in dynasty startup and rookie drafts last year. Peterson’s suspension, combined with the uninspiring play of backfield-mate Matt Asiatta boosted McKinnon value in early 2015 as it was seen as a real possibility that Peterson had payed his last down in…...

Will the Uber-Efficient Martavis Bryant Break Out in 2015?

I recently wrote an article about Davante Adams that specifically addressed how inefficient Adams was as a rookie and what implied for his chance of success in year two. I based the analysis on a new metric of receiver efficiency: Relative AYA (adjusted yards per attempt). Looking beyond Adams, I figured it would be a fruitful exercise size up the entire list of 2014’s rookies for potential second-year breakouts. Martavis Bryant is a name that jumped off the page as he was extremely efficient relative to other Steelers wide receivers, even Antonio Brown. Earlier this offseason, Fantasy Douche gave you eight reason why you should…...

Will Davante Adams Break Out? A New Efficiency Metric Might Offer a Clue

I like to mess around with the awesome suite of RotoViz Apps, in particular the AYA App is great to see how efficient a quarterback is throwing to all his receiving options. While going through all the big-name QBs I found lots of receivers that were either more or less efficient than I thought they would be. This led me to take a deeper look at how a receiver’s efficiency versus that of his teammates (what I’m calling Relative AYA) affects future performance. I looked at it a few different ways, and was eventually blown away by Relative AYA’s implications…...

Karlos Williams is the Perfect Late-Round Rookie Pick

Using price relationship, I’ve recently pointed to Devin Funchess and Tyler Lockett as potentially underpriced rookie wide receivers, and warned that we should proceed with caution when looking at where to draft this year’s top tight end prospect Maxx Williams. When reviewing the NFL draft/dynasty rookie draft relationship for rookie running backs, Karlos Williams popped up as hugely undervalued. I can understand why drafters aren’t high on Williams: His production was fairly paltry; he’s buried behind four RBs in BUF, including the recently re-signed LeSean McCoy; he was only drafted in the fifth round; and before the Combine he was seen as a potential UDFA…....

Maxx Williams: Proceed with Caution

I agree with Peter Reither that Maxx Williams is kind of a big deal based on his fantastic collegiate production; I take note that Shawn Siegele had Williams at 2.02 of his post-combine rookie mock; I also recognize that he was head-and-shoulders above other tight ends at number 17 overall in our RotoViz post-draft rookie rankings. That said, Williams came across as a negative outlier in my NFL draft position versus dynasty rookie draft ADP analysis. For as great as a prospect as we think Williams is, he still wasn’t drafted until the end of the second round, lower than four TEs in…...

Devin Funchess is Dorial Green-Beckham at Half the Price

We’ve spilt a lot of ink around RotoViz recently fawning over Dorial Green-Beckham. Is he a top-five, or even the number-one dynasty rookie pick? Fantasy Douche himself has wondered if Green-Beckham is secretly the most athletic receiver in the class. Considerably less time1 has been spent discussing Devin Funchess. But the more you look into the collegiate production, measurables, and next-level opportunity that Green-Beckham and Funchess have, the more Funchess looks like at least an equal. Now, consider that Funchess was drafted literally one pick after Green-Beckham in the NFL draft yet is going way later in rookie dynasty drafts, and Funchess…...

Cha-Ching: Nelson Agholor and Breshad Perriman are Post-Draft Equity Stars

Yesterday I posted an update of rookie running backs contrasting pre- and post-draft ADPs. I’ve done the same here for rookie wide receivers, and the results are both similar (almost universal ADP appreciation) and different (a couple are head-and-shoulders above the rest). As I mentioned in the rookie RB post, these visualization are based on redraft ADPs, but likely have implications for dynasty, at least from a perspective of market value, which can be greatly affected by a rookie’s first-year success…....

Melvin Gordon is the Top Rookie Running Back and More Post-Draft Analysis

We’re only a few days past the NFL draft and rookie valuations are moving quickly. It’s a little difficult to get a substantial sample to gauge post-draft ADPs, but Fantasy Douche has the data from around 35 dynasty rookie drafts. We also have a goldmine of public redraft data from My Fantasy League MFL10s. I scraped all the MFL10 draft picks since last Sunday, and we have around 20 picks for each player, a decent sample. Getting this data first and presenting it in a easily digestible fashion is what I’m doing here. Especially for running backs, redraft ADPs can…...

Finding Underpriced Rookie Wide Receivers like Devin Funchess and Tyler Lockett

Yesterday I took a look at the 2015 rookie running back class and identified where they should be taken in post-draft MFL10s based upon the historical relationship between draft position and redraft ADP. I also used updated rookie opportunity scores (OS) that account for the newly added rookies’ ADPs. I’m going to go through a similar exercise with 2015 rookie wide receivers, and I find a few underpriced values we should accumulate before the broader market catches on. While this post is looking a redraft PPR ADPs, it also has value in dynasty. You can think about pre-draft redraft ADPs as…...

How Early Can You Draft TJ Yeldon and Other Rookie Runnings Backs?

The NFL draft is over and we finally know where our favorite rookie running backs are going to be suiting up in the fall. If you’re like me and are planning on firing up a handful of My Fantasy League MFL10s this week, you’d like to know exactly where to draft risers like TJ Yeldon and the rest of the 2015 rookie RBs. One way we can identify where to target each rookie is by looking at the ADPs of past rookie RBs drafted in the same range, then narrowing that range based on how much opportunity they will likely have in year one. To do…...

Opportunity Scores: How Breshad Perriman Could Be 2015’s Kelvin Benjamin

The first round of the NFL Draft is officially in the books and fantasy football degenerates worldwide now have some fresh meat to chew on for the next four months. Over the course of the last few weeks, I explored the relationship between passing-game ADPs in the search for potential arbitrage opportunities. I eventually quantified the opportunity for rookie wide receivers in different landing spots based on current receivers’ ADP strength, or lack thereof. Now that we know where a handful of the top WR prospects have landed, let’s take another look at receiver opportunity scores and assess their chances for first-year…...

The Eagles Should Trade for Johnny Manziel, Not Marcus Mariota

This post is really more about the implications of Fantasy Douche’s YOLO quarterback strategy than specifically Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel. But I think the choice between acquiring Mariota or Manziel is a good illustration of taking the traditional franchise QB path or going YOLO. For those who haven’t read any previous YOLO QB articles, here’s an explainer from PapaViz:…...

Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs that are viewed much more favorably by drafters than their receivers should provide less receiving competition and more opportunity for a rookie receiver. Unfortunately, we do not have a proxy for drafters’ prospective view of…...

Playing the Odds: Opportunity Knocks for DeVante Parker

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and the inputs are limited, but it gave me some data to use in conjunction with my receiver opportunity scores to calculate a probabilistic estimate of how much production opportunity each top rookie wide receiver will have…...

Target Projections: Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe and other Late-Round Values

We’ve come to the final installment of my series going down the wider receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12, 12-24, 25-36, 37-48, and this year’s rookie class. Lumping all that we haven’t covered into one final analysis: WR ranks…...

eric decker injury

Target Projections: Eric Decker, Torrey Smith and the Rest of Tier Four

I’m working my way down the wide receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12, 12-24, 25-36, and this year’s rookie class. Now, I’m moving to the fourth-tier WRs with positional ADP ranks of 37-48. The fourth tier includes the young…...

Target Projections: Martavis Bryant, Allen Robinson and the Rest of the Third Tier

I’m working my way down the wide receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12, 12-24, and this year’s rookie class. Now, I’m moving to the third-tier WRs with positional ADP ranks of 25-36. The third tier includes much hyped potential break-out like Martavis…...

Target Projections – TY Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders and the Rest of the Second Tier

I’m working my way down the wide receiver ADP ranks comparing our staff composite target projections and historical data. I’ve already analyzed the top-12 and this year’s rookie class. Now, I’m moving to the second-tier WRs with positional ADP ranks of 13-24. The second tier includes 2014’s break-out stars like TY…...

Target Projections – Assessing Top-Tier Wide Receivers

Yesterday I used our staff composite target projections, which were created with the Projection Machine App, for this year’s rookie wide receivers in an attempt to gauge the likelihood they’ll live up to current ADPs. The exercise pointed us towards a few undervalued receivers that are likely to get more…...

Finding Wide Receiver Value with Staff Target Projections

I had a little twitter conversation earlier today with Rotoworld’s fantasy football savant and friend of the site Evan Silva about how high I was on Breshad Perriman. I couldn’t quite articulate in 140 characters why I liked him more in redraft than his rookie counterpart Nelson Agholor…....

Buy, Sell, or Hold: Jerick McKinnon Edition

All signs are that Adrian Peterson will begrudgingly return the Vikings. The NFL Draft came and went without a trade and Peterson is reportedly returning to Vikings’ OTAs today. The 2015 situation is now fairly clear for Peterson dynasty owners, but what does this mean for the break-out candidate and RotoViz favorite Jerick McKinnon?…...

Will the Uber-Efficient Martavis Bryant Break Out in 2015?

I recently wrote an article about Davante Adams that specifically addressed how inefficient Adams was as a rookie and what implied for his chance of success in year two. I based the analysis on a new metric of receiver efficiency: Relative AYA (adjusted yards per attempt). Looking beyond Adams, I figured it would…...

Will Davante Adams Break Out? A New Efficiency Metric Might Offer a Clue

I like to mess around with the awesome suite of RotoViz Apps, in particular the AYA App is great to see how efficient a quarterback is throwing to all his receiving options. While going through all the big-name QBs I found lots of receivers that were either more or less…...

Karlos Williams is the Perfect Late-Round Rookie Pick

Using price relationship, I’ve recently pointed to Devin Funchess and Tyler Lockett as potentially underpriced rookie wide receivers, and warned that we should proceed with caution when looking at where to draft this year’s top tight end prospect Maxx Williams. When reviewing the NFL draft/dynasty rookie draft relationship for rookie running backs, Karlos Williams popped…...

Maxx Williams: Proceed with Caution

I agree with Peter Reither that Maxx Williams is kind of a big deal based on his fantastic collegiate production; I take note that Shawn Siegele had Williams at 2.02 of his post-combine rookie mock; I also recognize that he was head-and-shoulders above other tight ends at number 17 overall in our…...

Devin Funchess is Dorial Green-Beckham at Half the Price

We’ve spilt a lot of ink around RotoViz recently fawning over Dorial Green-Beckham. Is he a top-five, or even the number-one dynasty rookie pick? Fantasy Douche himself has wondered if Green-Beckham is secretly the most athletic receiver in the class. Considerably less time1 has been spent discussing Devin Funchess. But the more…...

Cha-Ching: Nelson Agholor and Breshad Perriman are Post-Draft Equity Stars

Yesterday I posted an update of rookie running backs contrasting pre- and post-draft ADPs. I’ve done the same here for rookie wide receivers, and the results are both similar (almost universal ADP appreciation) and different (a couple are head-and-shoulders above the rest). As I mentioned in the rookie RB post,…...

Melvin Gordon is the Top Rookie Running Back and More Post-Draft Analysis

We’re only a few days past the NFL draft and rookie valuations are moving quickly. It’s a little difficult to get a substantial sample to gauge post-draft ADPs, but Fantasy Douche has the data from around 35 dynasty rookie drafts. We also have a goldmine of public redraft data from…...

Finding Underpriced Rookie Wide Receivers like Devin Funchess and Tyler Lockett

Yesterday I took a look at the 2015 rookie running back class and identified where they should be taken in post-draft MFL10s based upon the historical relationship between draft position and redraft ADP. I also used updated rookie opportunity scores (OS) that account for the newly added rookies’ ADPs. I’m going…...

How Early Can You Draft TJ Yeldon and Other Rookie Runnings Backs?

The NFL draft is over and we finally know where our favorite rookie running backs are going to be suiting up in the fall. If you’re like me and are planning on firing up a handful of My Fantasy League MFL10s this week, you’d like to know exactly where to…...

Opportunity Scores: How Breshad Perriman Could Be 2015’s Kelvin Benjamin

The first round of the NFL Draft is officially in the books and fantasy football degenerates worldwide now have some fresh meat to chew on for the next four months. Over the course of the last few weeks, I explored the relationship between passing-game ADPs in the search for potential…...

The Eagles Should Trade for Johnny Manziel, Not Marcus Mariota

This post is really more about the implications of Fantasy Douche’s YOLO quarterback strategy than specifically Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel. But I think the choice between acquiring Mariota or Manziel is a good illustration of taking the traditional franchise QB path or going YOLO. For those who haven’t read any previous YOLO QB articles,…...

Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are…...

Playing the Odds: Opportunity Knocks for DeVante Parker

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you…...

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