Winning in fantasy football isn’t as easy as the “just pick the right players” crowd would have you believe. Winning – not in a single league, but consistently – is the result of finding the overlooked advantages that together create a sustainable edge. I focus much of my analysis on price, where the market is telling us the collective wisdom of the crowd, and history can enlighten…...

A couple years ago, I attempted to create a numbers-based formula for determining which teams are the best landing spots for rookie wide receivers. In fantasy and real football, performance is largely a function of opportunity, whether created through talent, draft position or a lack of roster competition…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in...

I was happy to see Rotoworld’s Josh Norris recognize the importance of sample size while recently predicting that the analytical wizards with the Cleveland Browns will prefer Deshaun Watson to Mitchell Trubisky come draft day. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

We have roughly a month until the 2017 NFL draft, when we will learn where our favorite (or not so favorite) prospects will land this coming season. While draft position and landing spot are huge factors for forecasting the success of any running back prospect, I’ve found that we can accurately predict whether a running back will be successful largely based on his production profile…...

Earlier this offseason, we used the pre-NFL draft ADP relationship between a quarterback and his receivers to find potential opportunity for rookie wide receivers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Earlier we took a look at the 2016 wide receiver class through the lens of expected ADP based on NFL draft position, and found that the class (with one exception) looks historically overvalued. Now it’s time to look at 2016’s running backs, with particular focus on the top dog, Ezekiel Elliott…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member?...

There was a lot of talk leading into the NFL draft about how weak the crop of receivers was this year, and the amount of total draft capital spent on receivers was the lowest we’ve seen in nearly 20 years…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

A large determinant of opportunity is draft position, but it isn’t the only factor. We must also dig into the opportunity available for targets and production at rookie landing spots…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Despite the fact that the Browns new head coach and quarterback guru Hue Jackson says that third-round pick Cody Kessler is everything you look for in a quarterback and you have to trust him on the selection, major doubts still exist from the majority of NFL draft prognosticators on whether Kessler has any shot at meaningful NFL production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View...

There was a strong run of wide receivers taken in the second half of the first round of the NFL draft. We all want our dynasty rookie picks to quickly appreciate, and the best way for that to happen is for a rookie to start out with strong production in their first year…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership...

We re-introduced the rookie running back opportunity scores a few weeks ago, a concept developed last offseason to determine the best landing spots for the incoming class of rookies based on the relationship between how productive the backfield was the prior year and its running backs’ ADPs leading into the draft…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log...

We re-introduced the rookie wide receiver opportunity scores a few weeks ago, a concept developed last offseason to determine the best landing spots for the incoming class of rookies based on the relationship of pre-draft ADP between teams’ quarterbacks and receiver corps…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Earlier this week, we unveiled the 2016 opportunity scores for rookie wide receivers. Opportunity scores are a numbers-based formula for determining which teams are the best landing spots for rookies. In fantasy and real football, performance is largely a function of opportunity, whether created through talent, draft position or a lack of roster competition…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready...

Last year, we attempted to create a numbers-based formula for determining which teams are the best landing spots for rookie wide receivers. In fantasy and real football, performance is largely a function of opportunity, whether created through talent, draft position or a lack of roster competition…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

It hasn’t been a great year for sports punditry. Whether it’s former players and coaches, columnists, or your average in-gut-we-trust fan, all have seen their well-established but entirely untested narratives get blown to bits by the geeks and nerds…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

We’ve done a lot of work already this offseason using age, production and NFL combine measurables to predict the likelihood of success for rookie running backs and wide receivers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

The NFL combine is over, and while some running backs and wide receivers won the event with stud performances, others disappointed and will look to redeem themselves at their school’s Pro Day. We’ve already gotten early word that Mississippi State wide receiver Da’Runnya Wilson improved his shockingly slow 4.85 40-yard dash time from the combine, timing between 4.71 and 4.78 at his pro day. Auburn running back Peyton…...

We’ve built an updated regression tree for wide receiver prospects – incorporating collegiate production, combine measurables and age – and figured out which branches and leaves are occupied by the 2016 class members. Next, it’s time to take a look back at recent draft classes to see if there are any prospects who profile for NFL success, but just might not have had the opportunity to…...

If you’ve been reading anything I’ve published over the past couple weeks,[1]Much appreciated, if so. you know that I’ve been using regression trees in an attempt to gain insight into what NFL combine drills matter for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Plus, we found the running backs and wide receivers who won the combine. My most recent post combined age, production and combine measurables…...