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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,400 to $8,500 Range

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts. It’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s…...

PGA DFS: Travelers Championship Slate Breakdown

We’re heading up to Cromwell, CT for the Travelers Championship. If you’re looking for a more in-depth statistical breakdown of the course, you can check out last year’s course preview article.  Buy or Sell The expensive chalk this week is shaping up to be Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000). We learned in this Part 1 of the PGA DFS Game Theory Series that the highest owned golfers in the $9,500-plus range don’t necessarily pay off as well as one might think. Eating the chalk in this range provides a slightly higher floor rate, but does nothing for a golfer’s ceiling. Bryson seems…...

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,500 and Up Range

I’ve spent most of the past few years diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a…...

PGA DFS: Justin Thomas is Locked and Loaded at the RBC Heritage

After a solid week down in Texas, the Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. If you want an in-depth look at this week’s track, head over to last year’s preview article. Buy or Sell Webb Simpson ($9,000) is coming back off of a disappointing performance down in Texas, missing the cut as one of the most heavily owned golfers in the field. Despite that disappointment, people will likely be going right back to the well with him. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t one of the top three owned golfers on the slate…...

PGA DFS: Charles Schwab Challenge Slate Breakdown

It has been quite some time since we were able to talk golf, but the return is right around the corner. The tour heads out to Colonial Country Club down in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course has been in the rotation since the 1940s. It’s a par 70 that plays just a shade over 7,200 yards. Colonial features relatively small greens (4,500 square feet) that are bentgrass. The field will have to navigate their way around 85 bunkers and four water hazards. To see an in-depth course breakdown, head over to last year’s preview article…....

PGA DFS: The PLAYERS Championship Breakdown

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course that many of us are familiar with. If you want a look at how the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week, check out yesterday’s article. Buy or Sell We’re sitting here with another event where Rory McIlroy ($11,700) is just simply lapping the field in PRK Score. Even in the strongest field of the year, by just about any metric, McIlroy is far ahead of his closest competitor. As far as Raw PRK Score goes, Rory is at -2.40.1 The closest guy in the field…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for The PLAYERS Championship

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course  If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week. Standouts Pricing is always interesting in these strong fields. Collin Morikawa ($7,900) is below $8,000 despite his impressive made cut streak. He is coming off of a top-10 finish as well. Oh, and he’s also tied for sixth in Expected Birdies with a 92. Matt Kuchar ($7,800) also comes in sporting an excellent course fit via the…...

PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy is Still Too Cheap for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at how each golfer in the field fits the course, check out yesterday’s Expected Birdies piece.  Buy or Sell According to the simulator, Rory McIlroy ($11,800) should be in consideration despite his hefty price tag. His median projected finish position is 11th.1 His raw Power Ranking score is so far ahead of the rest of the field that there isn’t another golfer with a score above 90. In 11 of his last 13 events,…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies. Standouts Rory McIlroy ($11,800) continues to destroy everything in his path. He’s 0.8 strokes per round clear of the field according to the Raw Power Ranking Score. McIlroy has the second-best Expected Birdies score, too, as the cherry on the top. Collin Morikawa ($8,400) and Scottie Scheffler ($7,700) both seem a bit underpriced relative…...

PGA DFS: Billy Horschel is the Belle of the Ball at the Honda Classic

The Tour heads to Florida this week for The Honda Classic. It’s played at PGA National’s Champion course, which is a 7,100-yard par 70. This track is one of the more difficult tests on the entire tour. Getting golfers to make the cut is always important, but a missed cut is especially damaging here. Of the 103 courses in my database, PGA National has the 12th lowest average DK points for golfers who miss the cut of non-major venues.  Finish Category Average DK Points Top 25 71.3 25 – 50 56.2 51 – 75 48.7 MC 20.7 Buy or Sell…...

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,400 to $8,500 Range

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts. It’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s…...

PGA DFS: Travelers Championship Slate Breakdown

We’re heading up to Cromwell, CT for the Travelers Championship. If you’re looking for a more in-depth statistical breakdown of the course, you can check out last year’s course preview article.  Buy or Sell The expensive chalk this week is shaping up to be Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000). We learned in this Part 1 of the PGA DFS Game Theory Series that the highest owned golfers in the $9,500-plus range don’t necessarily pay off as well as one might think. Eating the chalk in this range provides a slightly higher floor rate, but does nothing for a golfer’s ceiling. Bryson seems…...

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,500 and Up Range

I’ve spent most of the past few years diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a…...

PGA DFS: Justin Thomas is Locked and Loaded at the RBC Heritage

After a solid week down in Texas, the Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. If you want an in-depth look at this week’s track, head over to last year’s preview article. Buy or Sell Webb Simpson ($9,000) is coming back off of a disappointing performance down in Texas, missing the cut as one of the most heavily owned golfers in the field. Despite that disappointment, people will likely be going right back to the well with him. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t one of the top three owned golfers on the slate…...

PGA DFS: Charles Schwab Challenge Slate Breakdown

It has been quite some time since we were able to talk golf, but the return is right around the corner. The tour heads out to Colonial Country Club down in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course has been in the rotation since the 1940s. It’s a par 70 that plays just a shade over 7,200 yards. Colonial features relatively small greens (4,500 square feet) that are bentgrass. The field will have to navigate their way around 85 bunkers and four water hazards. To see an in-depth course breakdown, head over to last year’s preview article…....

PGA DFS: The PLAYERS Championship Breakdown

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course that many of us are familiar with. If you want a look at how the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week, check out yesterday’s article. Buy or Sell We’re sitting here with another event where Rory McIlroy ($11,700) is just simply lapping the field in PRK Score. Even in the strongest field of the year, by just about any metric, McIlroy is far ahead of his closest competitor. As far as Raw PRK Score goes, Rory is at -2.40.1 The closest guy in the field…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for The PLAYERS Championship

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course  If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week. Standouts Pricing is always interesting in these strong fields. Collin Morikawa ($7,900) is below $8,000 despite his impressive made cut streak. He is coming off of a top-10 finish as well. Oh, and he’s also tied for sixth in Expected Birdies with a 92. Matt Kuchar ($7,800) also comes in sporting an excellent course fit via the…...

PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy is Still Too Cheap for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at how each golfer in the field fits the course, check out yesterday’s Expected Birdies piece.  Buy or Sell According to the simulator, Rory McIlroy ($11,800) should be in consideration despite his hefty price tag. His median projected finish position is 11th.1 His raw Power Ranking score is so far ahead of the rest of the field that there isn’t another golfer with a score above 90. In 11 of his last 13 events,…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies. Standouts Rory McIlroy ($11,800) continues to destroy everything in his path. He’s 0.8 strokes per round clear of the field according to the Raw Power Ranking Score. McIlroy has the second-best Expected Birdies score, too, as the cherry on the top. Collin Morikawa ($8,400) and Scottie Scheffler ($7,700) both seem a bit underpriced relative…...

PGA DFS: Billy Horschel is the Belle of the Ball at the Honda Classic

The Tour heads to Florida this week for The Honda Classic. It’s played at PGA National’s Champion course, which is a 7,100-yard par 70. This track is one of the more difficult tests on the entire tour. Getting golfers to make the cut is always important, but a missed cut is especially damaging here. Of the 103 courses in my database, PGA National has the 12th lowest average DK points for golfers who miss the cut of non-major venues.  Finish Category Average DK Points Top 25 71.3 25 – 50 56.2 51 – 75 48.7 MC 20.7 Buy or Sell…...

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,400 to $8,500 Range

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with…...

PGA DFS: Travelers Championship Slate Breakdown

We’re heading up to Cromwell, CT for the Travelers Championship. If you’re looking for a more in-depth statistical breakdown of the course, you can check out last year’s course preview article.  Buy or Sell The expensive chalk this week is shaping up to be Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000). We learned in…...

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,500 and Up Range

I’ve spent most of the past few years diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with…...

PGA DFS: Justin Thomas is Locked and Loaded at the RBC Heritage

After a solid week down in Texas, the Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. If you want an in-depth look at this week’s track, head over to last year’s preview article. Buy or Sell Webb Simpson ($9,000) is coming back off of a…...

PGA DFS: Charles Schwab Challenge Slate Breakdown

It has been quite some time since we were able to talk golf, but the return is right around the corner. The tour heads out to Colonial Country Club down in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course has been in the rotation since the 1940s. It’s…...

PGA DFS: The PLAYERS Championship Breakdown

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course that many of us are familiar with. If you want a look at how the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week, check out yesterday’s article. Buy or Sell We’re sitting here with another event where…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for The PLAYERS Championship

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course  If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week. Standouts Pricing is always…...

PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy is Still Too Cheap for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at how each golfer in the field fits the course, check out yesterday’s Expected Birdies piece.  Buy or Sell According to the simulator, Rory…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies. Standouts…...

PGA DFS: Billy Horschel is the Belle of the Ball at the Honda Classic

The Tour heads to Florida this week for The Honda Classic. It’s played at PGA National’s Champion course, which is a 7,100-yard par 70. This track is one of the more difficult tests on the entire tour. Getting golfers to make the cut is always important, but a missed cut…...

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