I’ve spent most of the past few years diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance

After a solid week down in Texas, the Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. If you want an in-depth look at this week’s track, head over to last year’s preview article. Buy or Sell Webb Simpson ($9,000) is coming back off of a disappointing performance down in Texas, missing the cut as one of the most heavily owned

It has been quite some time since we were able to talk golf, but the return is right around the corner. The tour heads out to Colonial Country Club down in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course has been in the rotation since the 1940s. It’s a par 70 that plays just a shade over 7,200 yards. Colonial features relatively small

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course that many of us are familiar with. If you want a look at how the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week, check out yesterday’s article. Buy or Sell We’re sitting here with another event where Rory McIlroy ($11,700) is just simply lapping the field in PRK Score. Even in the

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course  If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week. Standouts Pricing is always interesting in these strong fields. Collin Morikawa ($7,900) is below $8,000 despite his impressive made cut streak.

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at how each golfer in the field fits the course, check out yesterday’s Expected Birdies piece.  Buy or Sell According to the simulator, Rory McIlroy ($11,800) should be in consideration despite his hefty price tag. His median projected finish

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies. Standouts Rory McIlroy ($11,800) continues to destroy everything in his path. He’s 0.8 strokes per round clear

The Tour heads to Florida this week for The Honda Classic. It’s played at PGA National’s Champion course, which is a 7,100-yard par 70. This track is one of the more difficult tests on the entire tour. Getting golfers to make the cut is always important, but a missed cut is especially damaging here. Of the 103 courses in my database, PGA National has the

As always, we’re going to kick off our week with a quick look at Expected Birdies. The Honda Classic is being held at the Champion course at PGA National, as usual. If you’re interested in a statistical breakdown of how the course has played historically, check out last year’s preview article. Outliers Maverick McNealy ($7,500) continues to rate highly each and every week. He comes in

The Tour is heading South of the border for the World Golf Championship – Mexico Championship. This is a no-cut event with a very small field. At the moment, we have just over 70 committed golfers. Ownership in weeks like this is relatively flat, and it’s very difficult to get a guy at low ownership that’s worth playing. With that being said, we need to

We’re heading back to Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. This year’s field is one of the strongest non-major fields in recent memory with nine of the Top 10 OWGR making the trip. For a look at the Expected Birdies for this track, head over to yesterday’s article.  Buy or Sell Rory McIlroy ($11,600) is, without exaggeration, breaking the PRK Score this week. Last

We’re heading to Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational this week. There are few fields in golf outside of the majors that boast a field like this. That means there is plenty of money to go around on DraftKings. If you’re interested in a deeper, statistical dive you can head over to last year’s preview article.  Expected Birdies Explained Expected Birdies measure course fit in

The Tour turns its attention towards Pebble Beach for the week. As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, we’re looking at a three-course rotation again this week. That means plenty of showdown strategy and a Saturday cut is on tap for this weekend.  Finish Position Category Average DK Score Top 25 84.2 26 – 50 67.3 51 – 75 55.5 Missed Cut 37.5 Buy or Sell