Three Players to Buy After Week 2

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense.

Brian Hoyer

With Jay Cutler going down with a hand injury, Brian Hoyer is expected to take control of the Bears offense for the next few weeks. The change also coincides with an extremely easy stretch of games for Chicago, which bodes well for Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White and, yes, even Brian Hoyer.

As you can see from Cutler and Hoyer’s AYA charts below, there isn’t a ton separating these two QBs. Hoyer has shown he can produce a WR1 with DeAndre Hopkins, and Alshon Jeffery is not much of a drop-off in terms of talent. Hoyer is surely available on your waiver wire, even in 2QB leagues. He should be a solid contributor in what could be a high scoring upcoming game against Dallas (Vegas total 45) this week and beyond.


Drew Brees

The Vegas total for NO vs. Atlanta opened at 52.5 and has since moved up to 53.5. This is a very large number. Atlanta looks to be a very soft matchup for Brees, and that game is followed by another potential Champagne brunch against San Diego. According to the Buy Low Machine, the Saints upcoming three weeks are the easiest three game stretch in the NFL. If you look past the bye week and include the Carolina game, New Orleans is also nearly tied for the easiest four week stretch. Trading someone like Aaron Rodgers to acquire Brees would not be a terrible idea. Just be ready to sell high as the middle of the season hits, because things invert starting Week 7, when the Saints face the fourth-toughest strength of schedule from weeks 7-10.screen-shot-2016-09-21-at-11-58-39-am

Tajae Sharpe

The next four Weeks for Sharpe are the easiest in the NFL for WRs, and Sharpe is unquestionably the first option in the Titans aerial attack. Sharpe currently has 18 targets on the year to go with a solid 37 percent market share of team air yards. Delanie Walker, Sharpe’s top competition for targets, has been MIA so far this year posting just 11 targets and a paltry 16 percent MS air yards. As always, the best bet is to follow the volume. When you couple that volume with an easy schedule, good things are bound to happen.

Vegas opened the Week 3 TEN vs OAK game at a robust total of 48, but that has since come down a full one and a half points. Still, even bad passing teams like the Titans are good for 25-30 targets through the air, and Sharpe will be on the receiving end of most of them. Sharpe is a player I will be aggressively targeting in all my leagues this week.screen-shot-2016-09-21-at-12-25-17-pm

Josh Hermsmeyer

Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.
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