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A New No. 1 and Other Risers in the Updated WR Prospect Rankings

Anthony Amico has been doing work all off-season on predictive modeling for incoming rookies. Since NFL Draft Scout ranking is a significant factor, the model projections will change as the rankings change. There have been a variety of changes to the NFL Draft Scout rankings since the NFL combine. Though the wide receiver model itself has not changed, there have been big changes to the model outputs.

Updated WR Model Projections

PlayerSchoolF AgeBreakout AgeAdj AgeAdj DomNFL DS RankLog(DS)Predict
D.J. MooreMaryland20.719.719.90.53220.301221.5
Calvin RidleyAlabama23.021.021.30.32110.000187.5
Christian KirkTexas A&M21.120.120.30.31630.477163.5
Courtland SuttonSMU22.220.220.50.29650.699140.7
D.J. CharkLSU21.4-21.40.29940.602138.2
Anthony MillerMemphis23.222.222.40.36160.778126.1
James WashingtonOklahoma State21.820.821.00.31580.903124.2
Michael GallupColorado State21.820.821.00.347111.041120.1
Equanimeous St. BrownNotre Dame21.320.320.50.23570.845119.1
Tre'Quan SmithUCF21.519.519.80.286131.114116.5
Dante PettisWashington22.221.221.40.28490.954110.1
Allen LazardIowa State22.120.120.40.286161.204103.0
Deontay BurnettUSC20.220.220.20.282181.255100.8
Cedrick WilsonBoise State22.121.121.30.383231.362100.0
Deon CainClemson21.4-21.40.249101.00099.7
Steve IshmaelSyracuse22.419.419.90.375391.59197.7
Ricky JeuneGeorgia Tech24.122.122.40.590561.74897.7
Keke CouteeTexas Tech21.021.021.00.320221.34292.6
Korey RobertsonSouthern Mississippi22.522.522.50.383211.32288.8
Antonio Callaway*Florida21.0-21.00.256171.23088.6
Jordan LasleyUCLA21.121.121.10.378341.53188.4
Trey QuinnSMU22.122.122.10.333191.27987.0
J'Mon MooreMissouri22.621.621.80.261151.17685.1
Thomas OwensFIU21.719.720.00.438801.90385.1
Simmie CobbsIndiana22.4-22.40.275141.14682.5
Auden TateFSU20.920.920.90.282291.46277.6
DaeSean HamiltonPenn State22.8-22.80.238121.07975.8
Richie JamesMTSU22.321.321.50.306321.50572.9
Javon WimsGeorgia22.322.322.30.296271.43166.8
Jester WeahPitt22.921.922.10.313351.54464.5
Darren CarringtonUtah23.223.223.20.338281.44763.2
Jaleel ScottNew Mexico State22.922.922.90.279241.38060.4
Cam PhilipsVirginia Tech22.022.022.00.341491.69059.7
Byron PringleKansas State24.123.123.30.355361.55657.8
Marcell AtemanOklahoma State23.3-23.30.226201.30151.8
Wyatt DempsNevada21.820.821.00.297771.88649.0
Devonte BoydUNLV24.222.222.50.287431.63348.0
Linell BonnerHouston22.722.722.70.319591.77141.7
Kalib WoodsFAU23.323.323.30.394751.87541.2
Alfonso OnunworIdaho21.821.821.80.3611292.11134.9
Ervin PhilipsSyracuse22.9-22.90.245471.67232.7
Darren AndrewsUCLA22.422.422.40.297851.92929.3
Quadree HendersonPittsburgh21.3-21.30.057331.51926.8
  • Now that D.J. Moore has climbed all the way to second in the NFL Draft Scout ranks, he is the clear top fantasy WR in this class. His projection would rank eighth among all WRs in the sample since 2000.
  • Christian Kirk saw a subsequent decrease in projection, as he slid to third in the Draft Scout ranks.
  • Equanimeous St. Brown was another big riser, with his projection going up roughly 15 points.
  • Simmie Cobb’s projection went down close to 20 points.
  • Antonio Callaway was the second biggest riser after Moore. He was ranked 37th by NFL Draft Scout prior to the Combine and now ranks 17th. He is climbing closer and closer to being relevant.

There may be one more update prior to the NFL Draft, but I wanted to keep everyone abreast of the changes, particularly Moore’s since it was so significant.

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