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Game Level Similarity Projections : Quarterback Week 13

We at RotoViz are back with GLSP numbers for quarterbacks heading into Week 13, helping you how best to plan your optimal lineups this week knowing how well your chosen signal caller is likely to perform.

The GLSP, or Game Level Similarity Projections, come courtesy of Dave Caban and offer you a tantalizing glimpse into how players could produce this week based on previous matchups. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at how the numbers bear out this week.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
Patrick MahomesKCOAK18.93136.128
Jared GoffLARDET20.325.832.524.5
Andrew LuckINDJAX18.825.630.422.5
Drew BreesNODAL14.523.528.521.1
Baker MayfieldCLEHOU14.622.427.920.9
Ben RoethlisbergerPITLAC15.622.429.120.3
Deshaun WatsonHOUCLE1118.625.819.5
Aaron RodgersGBARI13.318.522.419
Matt RyanATLBAL1220.82619
Cam NewtonCARTB11.617.630.918.9
Kirk CousinsMINNE13.820.124.618.8
Russell WilsonSEASF12.317.529.618.4
Mitch TrubiskyCHINYG1418.523.418
Josh AllenBUFMIA517.924.617.9
Marcus MariotaTENNYJ11.818.324.417.4
Ryan TannehillMIABUF1015.122.916.9
Jameis WinstonTBCAR10.815.522.315.4
Dak PrescottDALNO5.314.623.315
Josh McCownNYJTEN11.214.518.314.7
Tom BradyNEMIN11.614.620.414.6
Joe FlaccoBALATL8.613.217.214.3
Chase DanielCHINYG9.313.519.614.3
Case KeenumDENCIN1013.818.814.1
Carson WentzPHIWAS7.112.917.613.4
Philip RiversLACPIT625.534.413
Lamar JacksonBALATL5.911.320.813
Matthew StaffordDETLAR812.418.612.8
Eli ManningNYGCHI7.512.419.812.8
Nick MullensSFSEA7.59.516.612.3
Josh RosenARIGB8.912.317.612.2
Derek CarrOAKKC511.516.611.8
Colt McCoyWASPHI510.315.410.6
Sam DarnoldNYJTEN6.59.512.310.6

There are three players whose projections immediately jump out, especially when you see the difference between their low score and their highest. The first is Phillip Rivers. There is a whopping 28.4 point chasm between his floor and his ceiling, the highest disparity of any QB this week. This is surprising because while Rivers is maddeningly consistent, he very rarely has spike weeks. Granted, he hasn’t scored less than 14.3 points in a game all season. But he also hasn’t scored more than 22.7 since Week 2.

Bills rookie Josh Allen is another player with no floor to speak of, but the potential for a huge week if things go his way. The reasons for his variance are manifest, given the peaks and valleys of his fantasy season. Allen has two games with at least 26 fantasy points but also has scored less than ten in five games.

The most surprising, given his form and the matchup, is Cam Newton. Any QB playing against the Bucs would seem to be fantasy viable. Especially one with the dual-threat appeal that Newton offers. Last week marked the first time all season that a QB did not eclipse 10 fantasy points against the Bucs. It was only the third time all season they’ve allowed less than 17.1. Despite this torrid form, Newton has a 19.3-point difference between his lowest projection and his highest one. If I had to guess, I’d say Newton will be close to the top in terms of QB scoring this week. He tends to enjoy his games against the Bucs.

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