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Game Level Similarity Projections : Quarterback Week 15

The time for joking around is over in fantasy football. Championships are now so close, fantasy owners can almost touch them. This is not a week to be making inefficient, nay wrong lineup decisions. Luckily, for people who are still in the title hunt, we at RotoViz are with you right to the end. With that in mind, the RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections offer a valuable tool towards assessing the good, or bad, that a player can do to you this week.

The GLSP come courtesy of Dave Caban and offer you a tantalizing glimpse into how players could produce this week based on previous matchups. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at how the numbers bear out this week for the quarterbacks.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
Jared GoffLARPHI17.7526.62531.2523.75
Patrick MahomesKCLAC19.2524.2530.87523.125
Drew BreesNOCAR17.12522.62527.87522.875
Russell WilsonSEASF10212521.6
Josh AllenBUFDET11.1251926.37519.5
Ben RoethlisbergerPITNE14.12518.7524.12518.875
Andrew LuckINDDAL12.2519.12524.517.875
Marcus MariotaTENNYG12.7517.7523.12517.5
Tom BradyNEPIT10.51825.12517.375
Baker MayfieldCLEDEN13.518.87523.37517.375
Jameis WinstonTBBAL419.37524.517.125
Carson WentzPHILAR4.517.2524.12516.75
Dak PrescottDALIND9.87516.62522.516.5
Philip RiversLACKC6.516.37522.515.125
Lamar JacksonBALTB6.12512.2518.2513
Derek CarrOAKCIN3.12512.12521.513
Matt RyanATLARI712.87519.12512.75
Nick MullensSFSEA5.6259.8751612.125
Eli ManningNYGTEN811.316.812.1
Jeff DriskelCINOAK6.29.814.811.3
Kirk CousinsMINMIA3.1259.62515.87510.875
Josh RosenARIATL6.29.813.210.8
Cam NewtonCARNO3.87511.751610.75
Deshaun WatsonHOUNYJ4.59.37516.87510.625
Case KeenumDENCLE7101410.5
Mitch TrubiskyCHIGB49.37515.6259.875
Matthew StaffordDETBUF5.58.615.29.8
Sam DarnoldNYJHOU3.68.612.49.6
Aaron RodgersGBCHI3.125814.3759.5
Ryan TannehillMIAMIN3.1258159.125
Mark SanchezWASJAX2.57.610.68.6

The projections for the truly big guns seem to suggest that most of them can be trusted this week. Four of the top 12 fantasy QBs have the top four averages projections, namely Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson. There is a cause for concern for some of the other QB1s, especially Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers projections are particularly horrific. Even his highest projection is lower than 2018 giants of the game Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill and Jeff Driskel.

Josh Allen’s insane rushing production has no doubt fueled his numbers, as the Lions have stiffened with regard to fantasy points to QBs of late. It’s amazing what 300-plus rushing yards in three games can do for a player’s floor. Similarly, an expectation of volume must be propping up the lofty projections for Jameis Winston. The Buccaneers will no doubt struggle to run the ball this week.1 This should give Winston ample opportunities to air it out. Winston has thrown multiple touchdown passes in his last four games. But has thrown for 249 yards or less in three of them.

  1. No change there.  (back)
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