Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 15 key stats to help you crush your Week 4 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 4
Reported lines are current as of September 26, 2019.1
|9/26 8:20 ET||At Green Bay||-4.5||Philadelphia||45.5|
|9/29 1:00 ET||At Houston||-4.5||Carolina||47|
|9/29 1:00 ET||At Baltimore||-7||Cleveland||45.5|
|9/29 1:00 ET||At NY Giants||-3||Washington||49.5|
|9/29 1:00 ET||LA Chargers||-16||At Miami||44|
|9/29 1:00 ET||At Indianapolis||-7||Oakland||45|
|9/29 1:00 ET||Kansas City||-6.5||At Detroit||54|
|9/29 1:00 ET||New England||-7||At Buffalo||42.5|
|9/29 1:00 ET||At Atlanta||-4||Tennessee||45|
|9/29 4:05 ET||At LA Rams||-9.5||Tampa Bay||50|
|9/29 4:05 ET||Seattle||-5||At Arizona||48|
|9/29 4:25 ET||At Chicago||-2||Minnesota||38|
|9/29 4:25 ET||At Denver||-3||Jacksonville||39|
|9/29 8:20 ET||Dallas||-2.5||At New Orleans||47|
|9/30 8:15 ET||At Pittsburgh||-4||Cincinnati||43.5|
PHI @ GB: Davante Adams breakout game incoming
IMPLIED: GB 25, PHI 20.5 — TOTAL: 45.5
The Eagles were trounced by WRs last season — and it’s still true this year. Philadelphia has allowed the 13th-, second-, and 13th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs in each of their respective games per our NFL Stat Explorer tool. Enter Green Bay WR Davante Adams, who is primed for a breakout game in Week 4.
CAR @ HOU: Christian McCaffrey never comes off the field
IMPLIED: HOU 25.75, CAR 21.25 — TOTAL: 47
Our Player Usage App shows that Christian McCaffrey has been an absolute tank. He has taken the field in 98% of Carolina’s snaps, which is the highest snap-rate among all running backs. He is averaging 68 snaps per game; only four other RBs average over 50.
|Name||Team||Snaps Per Game||Snap%|
CLE @ BAL: Baker Mayfield’s hardest matchup of the season?
IMPLIED: BAL 26.25, CLE 19.25 — TOTAL: 45.5
Baker Mayfield has his work cut out for him in Week 4, facing a Baltimore defense that could be his most difficult opponent this season:
WAS @ NYG: Wayne Gallman hasn’t lived up to expectations
IMPLIED: NYG 26.25, WAS 23.25 — TOTAL: 49.5
In his career, Wayne Gallman has scored -35.3 fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). He has earned 203.1 expected points (EP) but has only delivered 167.8 actual fantasy points with those opportunities.
LAC @ MIA: One more week of Austin Ekeler dominance
IMPLIED: LAC 30, MIA 14 — TOTAL: 44
As reported in our Fantasy Points Summary tool, Austin Ekeler leads all RBs with 26.6 PPR points per game. Ekeler has one more week as the starter before Melvin Gordon returns. Week 4 may be the last time to roster Ekeler with confidence in DFS.
OAK @ IND: T.Y. Hilton shines in these situations
IMPLIED: IND 26, OAK 19 — TOTAL: 45
Using the Game Splits App, we discover that WR T.Y. Hilton averages nearly three more fantasy points when playing as a seven-point home favorite or better. He could go off in Week 4 DFS slates.
KC @ DET: Patrick Mahomes is somehow better in spots like this
IMPLIED: KC 30.25, DET 23.75 — TOTAL: 54
Patrick Mahomes is always amazing, but he actually averages 14% more points per game when the game total is at least 54 points — like it is this week.
NE @ BUF: Rex Burkhead ranks first among Patriot RBs in snap rate
IMPLIED: NE 24.75, BUF 17.75 — TOTAL: 42.5
Rex Burkhead stole the show in Week 3, and he currently leads all New England RBs with a 48% snap rate.2
|Player||Snaps||Snap%||Tgt||Tgt Shr||Att||% Tm Att||Opps||% Tm Opps|
TEN @ ATL: Julio Jones Delivers WR1 Performances over half (56%) of the time
IMPLIED: ATL 24.5, TEN 20.5 — TOTAL: 45
Since Week 10 of the 2017 season, Julio Jones has either finished as a WR1 (56% of the time) or a WR3 or worse (44% of the time). He has never finished as a WR2.
TB @ LAR: Jared Goff at home with a 50-plus game total is unstoppable
IMPLIED: LAR 29.75, TB 20.25 — TOTAL: 50
We know about Jared Goff’s home-road splits, but they are even more pronounced when the home game has a Vegas total of 50 or higher. In those situations, Goff averages over 330 yards per game and nearly 28 fantasy PPG.
SEA @ ARZ: Only two NFL WRs have played more snaps than Larry Fitzgerald
IMPLIED: SEA 26.5, ARZ 21.5 — TOTAL: 48
Only two players have played more snaps than 36-year old Larry Fitzgerald (211) this season: Jaris Landry (212) and Nelson Agholor (213). Fitzgerald also ranks third in expected points (56.4) behind only Keenan Allen and Julio Jones.
MIN @ CHI: David Montgomery is due for more TDs
IMPLIED: CHI 20, MIN 18 — TOTAL: 38
Using the RotoViz Screener, we see that David Montgomery is tied for first among RBs with five rush attempts from inside the five-yard line.
Rush attempt leaders from inside the 5:— Tyler Loechner (@LoechnerNFL) September 25, 2019
– David Montgomery (5)
– Jeff Wilson (5)
– Mark Ingram (5)
– Philip Lindsay (5)
– CMC (4)
– Frank Gore (4) 💀
– Sony Michel (4)
JAX @ DEN: Leonard Fournette Ranks Sixth in EP, but Third-worst in FPOE
IMPLIED: DEN 21, JAX 18 — TOTAL: 39
Leonard Fournette ranks sixth among RBs with 51.5 expected points. However, he has scored -10.2 FPOE, which is third-worst among RBs through three weeks.
DAL @ NO: Dak Prescott ranks second in FPOE
IMPLIED: DAL 24.75, NO 22.25 — TOTAL: 47
Only one QB — Mahomes — ranks ahead of Dak Prescott in FPOE. Prescott has scored 38.2 FPOE through three weeks.
CIN @ PIT: Diontae Johnson had a 23% target share in Week 3
IMPLIED: PIT 23.75, CIN 19.75 — TOTAL: 43.5
Last week, with Mason Rudolph under center, Pittsburgh featured rookie WR Diontae Johnson. Johnson earned a 23% team target share, just behind Juju Smith-Schuster for the team lead.