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Dollars Per Opportunity: Livin’ La Breida Loca

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our GLSP projections to find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Yahoo! DFS.

In DFS, overlay can be your best friend and when it came to Yahoo’s Million Dollar Baller contest last week it only filled about 75 percent. Another best friend to DFS players is rake-free contests, which this contest provides as well. Talk about a lethal 1-2 punch! They’re running it back again for Week 2 so make sure you get in on the action.

The major thing to be aware of in Week 1 is not to get fooled by the fluke breakouts — Marquise Brown with five targets, four catches, 147 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 snaps — and instead focus on the potential breakouts in Mecole Hardman (more on him later).

Let’s get to the plays and I’ll see you in the Yahoo! contests!

Get $25 FREE with your first deposit using promo code “VIZ25”!

QUARTERBACK

Derek Carr | 15.4 Opp Score | $26

When it comes to the Raiders offense we know they want to establish the run first and foremost, but against the high-powered Chiefs offense they’ll likely have to ratchet it up a bit in the passing game. Not only will Carr have to air it out more, but the Chiefs defense is coming off a game where a quarterback named Gardner Minshew passed for 275 yards and two touchdowns on 22-of-25 passing. The Raiders are at home and have a healthy implied team total of 23 points and at just 13 percent of your budget, Carr should have no issue hitting value.

RUNNING BACK

Todd Gurley | 25.5 Opp Score | $18

Last year it would be unheard of to get Todd Gurley at 9% of your roster budget, especially in a matchup at home against the Saints where the Rams have an implied team total of 27.5 points. Does he have a balky knee? Yes, but he also just put up a very efficient 101 yards on 15 touches in the Rams’ opener and we’re looking at a marquee matchup this week with the Saints where the spread is only 2.5 points. Even if Gurley is no longer a 30-touch workhorse, he’s running on a great offense in what should be a very high scoring affair. The buzz around Malcolm Brown will certainly keep Gurley’s ownership low, making him a nice GPP play at his price.

Matt Breida | 17.9 Opp Score | $18

With Tevin Coleman out, look for Matt Breida to take control of the 49ers backfield. The 49ers offense really struggled to get going in the opener against the Buccaneers and I expect them to lean on Breida’s play-making ability this week to get the ball rolling. The Bengals are coming off an impressive outing against the Seahawks where they kept Chris Carson bottled up from a yardage standpoint, but he still caught six passes and scored two total touchdowns. Breida should be in line for 15-18 touches and has the big-play upside and a safe floor you want in both GPP and cash games.

WIDE RECEIVER

Will Fuller | 16.3 Opp Score | $15

The Texans pass offense looks as advertised and while all the attention — including Jalen Ramsey — will be on DeAndre Hopkins, I think it’s his teammate Will Fuller who is in a nice spot for a breakout. We just watched Sammy Watkins torch this secondary to the tune of 198 yards and three touchdowns — a lot of that coming against A.J. Bouye, who should be on Fuller this week. Also, Fuller has historically done well when the Texans are big favorites with a high implied team total as shown by our awesome Stat Explorer tool.

Mecole Hardman | 0.2 Opp Score | $10

This is where the GLSP projections struggle a bit … how can we get the algorithm to project Hardman — a rookie who saw zero targets in his first game — to suddenly break out?! You have to dig a little bit deeper for this play and once you do you’ll notice that Hardman logged the second-most snaps at wide receiver once Tyreek Hill went out with an injury on Sunday. He’ll be the primary beneficiary in terms of playing time and given his speed you can definitely expect Patrick Mahomes to test his arm strength a couple of times.

The Raiders will be focused on keeping Watkins and Travis Kelce in check, which should give Hardman the opportunity to sneak passed the secondary. At the minimum price, it’s a great flier to take in GPPs and cash alike.

TIGHT END

Darren Waller | 9.1 Opp Score | $13

It’s clear that with the departure of Antonio Brown, Darren Waller will be a big beneficiary in the Raiders passing game. It’s even more clear when you look at his positional ranks among many key production metrics:

His 31% share of the targets is equivalent to a WR1 in most offenses and as mentioned above with Carr the Raiders should be throwing the ball more to keep up with the potent Chiefs offense.

Lineup Optimizer

Locking in a Carr, Waller, and Hardman game stack along with Breida, here’s what our DFS Optimizer spit out for me in Week 2:

Good luck in Week 2!

Image Credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Matt Breida.

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