Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our GLSP projections to find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Yahoo! DFS.
The chalky plays hit in a big way last week, although on Yahoo! the prices for those breakout players weren’t as soft as they were on DraftKings. This week there’s a chance for major chalk at running back if David Johnson or Todd Gurley are both ruled out for Sunday. It would also increase ownership on more highly priced wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones. They are always good plays, but the higher owned they are, the more I will look for pivots in GPPs.
Let’s get to the plays!
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Kyler Murray | 24.6 Opp Score | $26
Kirk Cousins | 21.5 Opp Score | $24
Kirk Cousins is the exact opposite of Murray — low opportunity expectation — but this could be a spike week if the Eagles offense forces the Vikings to score. The good news here is that the Eagles offense is good at scoring points. The even better news is that the Eagles defense is very vulnerable vs. the pass and stout against the run. The Vikings should take advantage of the matchup and air it out a little more on Sunday, which will increase Cousins’ floor and, more importantly, his ceiling. Also, per RotoViz’s shiny new pace tool, this game could wind up producing a lot of plays (average of 64 plays in neutral script), which is great news for more passes.
Chris Carson | 20.4 Opp Score | $27
The Seahawks aren’t home this week, but they are favored against the Browns, and Chris Carson is coming off his highest snap share (84%) of the season even with Rashaad Penny back. Carson has a locked-in role on a Seahawks offense that wants to establish the run. Given how dysfunctional the Browns have looked on the field at times, it’s likely that the Seahawks maintain a lead and continue to feed Carson the ball.
Leonard Fournette | 23.6 Opp Score | $25
Leonard Fournette is basically 2018 Ezekiel Elliott but with terrible efficiency — we’re talking about the worst efficiency you can have. As long as he keeps being priced outside the top tier, you have to consider him in your DFS lineups.
Terry McLaurin | 19.0 Opp Score | $20
Terry McLaurin stepped right back into his WR1 role last week, but it was a tough matchup vs. the Patriots. Still, he accumulated 123 air yards and a 0.87 WOPR and gets to face off against the terrible Dolphins defense. He’s priced as the WR19 so while he’s priced up he’s not priced up for the opportunity he should see.
Courtland Sutton | 18.2 Opp Score | $18
Courtland Sutton gets a great matchup vs. Malcolm Butler, who has allowed a 75% catch rate, in what should be an ugly game (Vegas total is 40.5 points), but he’s emerging as the WR1 in Denver as evidenced by his WOPR.
George Kittle | 17.3 Opp Score | $22
Tight end is pretty easy this week as Austin Hooper ($25) is priced up for his plus matchup against the Cardinals, but you can have George Kittle (or Zach Ertz) at a slight discount. Kittle is the top receiving option on the 49ers, and this game against the Rams should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair (Vegas total of 50.5 points).
Here’s what the DFS Optimizer spit out after locking in some of the plays above:
Good luck this week!