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Dollars Per Opportunity: Valuing The Titans Pass Game

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our GLSP projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Yahoo! DFS.

Last week we had success with playing Lamar Jackson, although stacking him with Mark Andrews and his three crucial drops caused a lot of frustration. Also, Robert Woods getting tackled at the goal line wasn’t great for my lineups, but as always we live to play DFS another day. As a reminder, within this article you will see screenshots from various amazing tools that RotoViz provides, such as the Stat Explorer, GLSP Projections, Pace App, Game Splits App and DFS Optimizer.

Let’s get to the plays!

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QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen | 17.9 Opp Score | $30

He’s not cheap like the good old days, but if you’re looking for an alternative option to the high-priced tier Josh Allen is your guy. He’s priced as the QB11 and faces an Eagles defense that has been torched by opposing passers. Allen also brings a ton of rushing upside to the table as he’s averaged 7.5 rush attempts and scored three rushing touchdowns in six games.

Ryan Tannehill | 15.7 Opp Score | $26

I never thought I would be recommending Ryan Tannehill in DFS during the 2019 season, but here we are. He’s coming off a very solid debut and now gets to face a Buccaneers defense that is not only a plus matchup for opposing quarterbacks, but is also very stout against the run game and should force the Titans to abandon their grind-it-out ways to some extent. This game has sneaky shootout potential, which gives the Titans’ pass game some underrated value (more on that later). Using the Stat Explorer, we can see just how poorly the Buccaneers have performed against quarterbacks.

RUNNING BACK

Chris Carson | 21.7 Opp Score | $27

There are a couple of rules when deciding whether to play Chris Carson in DFS. First, you need the Seahawks to be favored in the game — 7-point favorites, check. Second, you want the Seahawks to have a big team total — 29.8 implied points, check.  All boxes are checked, so it’s all systems go for Carson!

Ty Johnson | 9.8 Opp Score | $13

I don’t think Ty Johnson is a free square this week, but he’s pretty damn close to it. At near min-price it’s hard to fade any running back who should, at worst, see a 50% share of touches out of the Lions backfield. He’s an explosive athlete and will get some work in the passing game despite J.D. McKissic’s established role there.

WIDE RECEIVER

John Brown | 21.6 Opp Score | $23

By now it’s no secret that the Eagles cornerbacks are terrible and they will continue to get torched by opposing wide receivers. Well, John Brown is an opposing wide receiver and has been the Bills’ top option all year — his 0.62 weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) reflects that of a WR1. By comparison, Michael Thomas has a 0.80 WOPR. As a bonus, this game provides some nice upside in terms of a fast pace of play. From the Game Pace tool:

Robert Woods | 14.4 Opp Score | $21

Broken record alert … I’m recommending Robert Woods again. Efficiency has still not caught up with his opportunity and he narrowly missed scoring a touchdown last week by getting tackled at the goal line. The Rams are heavy favorites (-13) vs. the Bengals and typically that isn’t a great sign for the passing game. However, Woods has typically performed better in these situations. In fact, in 14 games where the Rams were at least 7-point favorites, he almost doubles his average fantasy points despite seeing the same number of targets.

Kenny Stills/Keke Coutee | 14.4/9.6 Opp Score | $17/$11

This one is simple. The Texans are implied to score 30 points against a Raiders defense that just allowed Aaron Rodgers and his band of injured receivers to score a boatload of touchdowns (six to be exact). You obviously want to jam DeAndre Hopkins in as he’s due for a monster game one of these weeks, but the secondary options — Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee — are who I’m more excited about as they are cheap ways to get exposure to this high team total.

A.J. Brown/Corey Davis | 12.0/16.8 Opp Score | $16/$14

For the same reasons Tannehill is a recommended option this week, his top wide receivers are also solid options because of both their price and expected opportunity. A.J. Brown has been very efficient this season — his 1.08 RACR1 —  and he saw his highest expected points total last week with Tannehill under center. Corey Davis isn’t as efficient, but he also saw his highest expected points total last week. Given how bad the Buccaneers defense has been at stopping wide receivers this season I would expect the increased opportunity trends to continue. I also love being able to run back a Titans stack with the likes of Chris Godwin and even Mike Evans.

TIGHT END

Gerald Everett | 14.4 Opp Score | $17

It’s tough to pay up at tight end this week as I don’t really love the spots all the high-priced options are in. When you get to the second tier, the one player that jumped off the screen is Gerald Everett, who has seen eight or more targets in three of his last four games. Over that span, Everett’s 0.45 WOPR is right there with Woods and only behind Cooper Kupp. Again, the Rams are big favorites, but one of my favorite rules of playing tight ends in DFS is always target those with high team totals.

Jonnu Smith | 4.8 Opp Score | $10

If Delanie Walker sits — he missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday — getting Jonnu Smith at minimum price is a great way to jam in some stud running backs.2 I don’t have to keep reiterating that I think the Titans passing game is in a great spot, so just know that if Walker is out I’ll be basically locking Smith in most of my lineups.

Lineup Optimizer

Here’s what the DFS Optimizer spit out after locking in some of the plays above:

Good luck this week!

Image Credit: Daniel Dunn/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Corey Davis.

  1. receiving yards divided by air yards  (back)
  2. we have both Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley on the slate!  (back)

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