Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 13 key stats to help you crush your Week 10 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 10
Reported lines are current as of November 7, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/7 8:20 ET||LA Chargers||-1||At Oakland||49|
|11/10 1:00 ET||Kansas City||-5.5||At Tennessee||48.5|
|11/10 1:00 ET||At Cleveland||-3||Buffalo||40|
|11/10 1:00 ET||At Tampa Bay||-4.5||Arizona||52|
|11/10 1:00 ET||NY Giants||-2.5||At NY Jets||43.5|
|11/10 1:00 ET||At New Orleans||-13||Atlanta||51.5|
|11/10 1:00 ET||Baltimore||-10||At Cincinnati||44.5|
|11/10 4:25 ET||At Green Bay||-5||Carolina||47|
|11/10 1:00 ET||At Chicago||-2.5||Detroit||41.5|
|11/10 4:05 ET||At Indianapolis||-10||Miami||44|
|11/10 4:25 ET||LA Rams||-3.5||At Pittsburgh||44|
|11/10 8:20 ET||At Dallas||-3||Minnesota||47.5|
|11/11 8:15 ET||At San Francisco||-6.5||Seattle||46|
LAC @ OAK: Mike Williams is 9th in Expected Points (EP) since Week 5
IMPLIED: LAC 25, OAK 24 — TOTAL: 49
Per our Weekly Stats tool, Chargers WR Mike Williams is fifth in EP since Week 5, but only 22nd in actual points. On the year, he has 54 targets and 0 receiving touchdowns. All other players with more targets than him have at least one receiving TD on the year, except for Robert Woods.2 Williams a huge game waiting to happen.
KC @ TEN: Tyreek Hill is still a top-10 WR
IMPLIED: KC 27, ARZ 21.5 — TOTAL: 48.5
Over the last 3 weeks, Hill ranks sixth among WRs in fantasy points, with 57. In that span, he’s third in yards (290) and second in Air Yards (360).
BUF @ CLE: John Brown is in a rare group with at least a 20% target market share and at least 14.0 air yard per target
IMPLIED: CLE 21.5, BUF 18.5 — TOTAL: 40
John Brown is one of only seven players with at least 14 air yards per target while also owning at least a 20% team target market share (Brown has a 25% target market share). He’s part of a big-play, reliable group:
ARZ @ TB: This will be the 2nd-fastest game of the week
IMPLIED: TB 28.25, ARZ 23.75 — TOTAL: 52
Per our Pace App, this contest — which has the highest implied total (52) on the slate — will be the second-fastest paced, at 26.8 seconds per play.
NYG @ NYJ: Get-right spot for Robby Anderson
IMPLIED: NYG 23, NYJ 20.5 — TOTAL: 43.5
Anderson draws a Giants defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in virtually every category when facing WRs. Anderson could hit for Week 10 DFS players in this game.
ATL @ NO: The Falcons have given up the 2nd-most rush attempts this month
IMPLIED: NO 32.25, ATL 19.25 — TOTAL: 51.5
Over the last five weeks, the Falcons defense has given up the 2nd-most rush attempts (27.6 per game) and 12th-most rushing yards (105.8) per game. Alvin Kamara is expected back from injury for Week 10 DFS lineups.
BAL @ CIN: Mark Ingram will feast against the Bengals
IMPLIED: BAL 27.25, CIN 17.25 — TOTAL: 44.5
The Bengals rank bottom-10 in attempts, yards, and YPC ceded to RBs over the last five weeks, and have in turn given up the seventh-most fantasy points and eighth-most EP to the position. Ingram, who, along with QB Lamar Jackson, is on pace for 1,000-plus yards this season, will dominate the Bengals.
CAR @ GB: The Packers have given up the 11th-most EP to RBs
IMPLIED: GB 26, CAR 21 — TOTAL: 47
Christian McCaffrey every week. Every. Single. Week. Especially when the D he’s facing ranks in the bottom half of the league in EP given up to RBs over the last five weeks. Per our Strength of Schedule app, this is actually CMC’s easiest game of the season:
DET @ CHI: The Lions are the worst team in the NFL against RBs
IMPLIED: CHI 22, DET 19.5 — TOTAL: 41.5
Newly-formed three-down RB David Montgomery will keep the ball rolling in Week 10 DFS against the Lions, who rank last in fantasy points given up to RBs, third-worst in EP, and fifth-most in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). RBs also rank top 10 in attempts, yards, YPC, and receptions against Detroit over the last five weeks.
MIA @ IND: Mike Gesicki has at least 40 yards in 3 of his last 4 games
IMPLIED: IND 27, MIA 17 — TOTAL: 44
Gesicki is a strong add in season-long leagues, and he’s a viable low-owned punt option in Week 10 DFS as well. Here’s what I wrote about Gesicki in my Week 10 Waiver Wire Advice piece — and this was before Preston Williams was ruled out for the season, which opens up even more opportunity for Gesicki. As for his matchup, the Colts rank bottom-10 in EP given up to TEs over their last five games:
Gesicki has become an important part of Miami’s offense. He has at least 40 receiving yards in three of his last four games, and had a season-best line of 6-95-0 (15.5 PPR points) in Week 9.
LAR @ PIT: Jaylen Samuels had a 38% target market share last week
IMPLIED: LAR 23.75, PIT 20.25 — TOTAL: 44
Samuels saw 13 targets in Week 9, good for 38% of all of Pittsburgh’s pass attempts int he game. James Conner has remained limited at practice and could end up missing Week 10, in which case Samuels would be 100% playable with that kind of volume.
MIN @ DAL: The Vikings rank bottom-5 in EP given up to WRs
IMPLIED: DAL 25.25, MIN 22.25 — TOTAL: 47.5
Over their last five games, the Vikings rank fifth-worst in EP given up to WRs and 10th-worst in actual points given up. And it wasn’t just Marvin Jones’ big four-TD game that did them in; they rank bottom-12 in EP ceded to WRs in four of their last five games. Giddy-up, Amari Cooper.
SEA @ SF: This game will produce the most total plays (138)
IMPLIED: SF 26.25, SEA 19.75 — TOTAL: 46
Per our Pace App, you can expect this game to produce about 138 total plays — which would be the most of any game this week. The low-ish total (46) might be the most likely, but this game’s range of outcomes includes scenarios in which a ton of points are scored, given the number of snaps we can expect.