Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our Game Level Similarity Projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Week 9 Yahoo! DFS.
I’m feeling very good about this week’s picks so I’m skipping my already brief intro and getting straight to the meat of the article. As a reminder, within this article you will see screenshots from various amazing tools that RotoViz provides, such as the Stat Explorer, GLSP Projections, Pace App, Game Splits App and DFS Optimizer.
Let’s get to the plays!
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Jameis Winston | 27.3 Opp Score | $29
When it comes to Jameis Winston you want him to be an underdog and you want him to be in a game with a high total. Against Seattle he checks off both of those boxes. A lot of DFS players will be afraid to click on his name because traveling to Seattle is a perceived bad matchup, but this year’s Seattle defense isn’t like the past. In fact, the Seahawks have given up top-10 expected points to opposing quarterbacks in each of the last four weeks — and we’re talking about Matt Schaub, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff here. Give me Winston anytime he’s facing a below-average defense and is projected for 35 or more attempts.
Melvin Gordon | 18.6 Opp Score | $20
Through four games, Gordon has put up a respectable 13.8 expected points per game and he’ll finally get his first good matchup vs. the Packers. Not only is it a favorable matchup for Gordon, but the Chargers are home underdogs. That should lead to more pass targets which is what we loved most about Gordon last year. With Russell Okung back and the Chargers clear commitment to get Gordon going — his snap count hasn’t wavered in four games — this could be the week he finally puts it all together.
Derrick Henry | 17.9 Opp Score | $19
Henry is another workhorse running back, who is better than perceived and way too cheap for the opportunity he’s getting. Through eight games Henry has averaged 20.3 opportunities (rush attemtps + targets) so his role is pretty locked in no matter the game script.
The Titans defense shouldn’t have a lot of issues vs. Kyle Allen, and if they can control the game, we could see a monster output from Henry.
Jaylen Samuels | 14.5 Opp Score | $12
Samuels is a “set and forget” type of play once James Conner (doubtful) is officially ruled out for Sunday. The Steelers have no other healthy RBs, and assuming Samuels is ready to go, you can’t fade a near-minimum RB who could see 100 percent of the snaps.
Chris Godwin | 26.4 Opp Score | $29
A lot of people will have a sour taste in their mouth left by Godwin’s dud vs. the Titans. However, we shouldn’t be afraid to go back to the well in what is another great matchup vs. the Seahawks. The Game Level Similarity Projections have him projected for a monster opportunity score, so getting him under $30 is a bargain. He’s Winston’s most efficient target in the passing game (see chart from the AYA App below) and sets up well in this high-volume matchup.
Marvin Jones Jr. | 16.8 Opp Score | $18
The Raiders are one of the worst defenses against the pass while being respectable against the run. The Lions are currently in running back limbo where they had to try out Jay Ajayi this week. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist (sidenote: Matt Patricia used to be a rocket scientist) to see how the Lions offense is going to attack this game. If Matthew Stafford is throwing a ton of passes, the WRs are always in play and the cheaper they are the better. Play Marvin Jones.
Robby Anderson | 14.4 Opp Score | $17
The Jets (Sam Darnold in particular) have been the laughing stock of the NFL the last couple of weeks, but they have faced off against some quality defenses in the Patriots and Jaguars. The schedule finally eases up for them with a matchup vs. the Dolphins, and it has every making of a “get right” game. The Dolphins just gave up a whopping 421 air yards to Mason Rudolph and when I say air yards for the Jets the only name that comes to mind is, of course, Robby Anderson.
Jack Doyle | 10.4 Opp Score | $12
We already know T.Y. Hilton is out for a couple of weeks and Eric Ebron is questionable and trending towards out as well. If Ebron sits, this becomes a much easier play, but even with Ebron present Doyle has maintained a 70 percent share of snaps and 14 percent target share. Both of those could increase with the Colts’ injuries, and Doyle is barely priced over the minimum.
Here’s what the DFS Optimizer spit out after locking in some of the plays above:
Good luck this week!