Michael Dubner uses the DFS Lineup Optimizer and other RotoViz tools to prepare for Week 12 GPPs on FanDuel.
Large-field GPPs are primarily won in three key areas: 1) player projections, 2) roster construction, and 3) ownership.
Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to concentrate on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once a good play in a vacuum can become sub-optimal as chalk. And what may feel thin at first may actually be plus-EV at low ownership.
One of the benefits of using the RotoViz Lineup Optimizer is that it provides information that is unbiased and unaware of public touting. Our goal here is to uncover players and roster constructions that are going overlooked by the public and can help vault us to the top of the leaderboards to bank a large GPP prize.
First, we’ll look at the top values and overall plays at each position, then at the end walk through the optimal lineup.
Player pricing and projections do not exist within a vacuum, but must take into the consideration of the context of the slate. To do this, I will use the DFS Lineup Optimizer to generate 50 lineups and we’ll look at the players who appear most frequently. Before generating the lineups:
- Excluded players I don’t want in my player pool.
- Forced QB-WR stack, since it is basically mandatory to stack your quarterback with at least one pass-catcher to take down a FanDuel GPP.
- RB in the Flex, since RBs tend to provide more upside in FanDuel’s half-PPR scoring format.
- Set the randomness to 50% in order to enhance player diversity.
Top Projected Raw Scorers:
As of Thursday, this slate’s pricing is really tight and there aren’t many “great” plays. One of the ways to build lineups in these types of slates is to just jam in the best raw scorers, and hope their combined production can lap the rest of the field.
Christian McCaffrey is always the top projected RB as we saw him score 24.6 FanDuel points in Week 11 despite not finding the end zone. However, the running back opposite McCaffrey this week – Alvin Kamara – is my preferred combination of raw projection and value. Vegas has the Saints projected for nearly 10 more points than the Panthers. Kamara has 10 targets in each of his last two games.
Josh Jacobs was highly owned last week, but disappointed with 11.9 FanDuel points. He still managed to lead RBs in rushing expected fantasy points in Week 11. Jacobs’ would’ve likely been chalk this week if one of the 2-yard Foster Moreau TD, 3-yard Derek Carr TD, or 20-yard field goals were converted into a Jacobs touchdown.
Even with Kareem Hunt getting a lot of receiving work, Nick Chubb has 22-plus touches in back-to-back weeks. The Browns are double-digit home favorites with an implied team total over 27. He could be the must-own RB of the week if he punches in two scores.
Top Value RBs
The Game Level Similarity Projections love Phillip Lindsay this week. Coming out their Week 10 bye, Lindsay took control of the Broncos backfield by out-touching Royce Freeman 18-9. The matchup (@BUF) and game environment don’t set up well, but Lindsay will likely have sub-10% ownership.
Miles Sanders is my preferred RB value. While he only scored 5.7 points last week, he played 85% of the offensive snaps and saw 15 opportunities. He now gets a much more favorable matchup and at $5,600 is one of the few (if not only) mispriced RBs on the main slate with a 15-17 touch projection.1
I’ve been overweight on Leonard Fournette many weeks this season and will continue to be at a $7,000 price tag. He’s third among RBs in expected fantasy points. Non-Tampa Bay RBs have scored plenty of fantasy points against the Titans.
Passing Units to Target
Buccaneers versus Falcons Game Stack
This isn’t sneaky. Everyone is going to stack this game. And rightfully so. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have the two highest 75th percentile projections in the GLSP. Jameis Winston should be stacked with one of Evans or Godwin. Double-stacks can be attempted but may be too expensive.
Calvin Ridley was the cover-boy of Week 11’s FanDuel GPP article, and I’m certainly not shying away again this week. He did see a price-bump, but that is still too cheap for his role with Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman sidelined. Julio Jones is third among WRs in air yards and is due for massive positive touchdown regression. Matt Ryan can be double stacked with Jones and Ridley, but you will have to be cognizant of ownership percentages at the other roster spots because that will likely be the most popular double-stack.
Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., and DJ Moore are due for massive Positive Touchdown Regression— Michael Dubner (@Michael_Dubner) November 21, 2019
– OBJ: $7K on FanDuel vs the #Dolphins
– Julio in game stacks vs pass-funnel #buccaneers
– DJ Moore still underpriced ($6.4k) given his role. Kyle Allen does lower his TD ceiling pic.twitter.com/Wv8jtPENwu
Cleveland Browns Onslaught
I know the Browns have been the biggest disappoint of the year. But I am all in on them against the Dolphins who are allowing the second-most yards per play (6.1). Baker Mayfield is relatively cheap at $7,500. Odell Beckham Jr. is the cheapest he’s been in forever at $7,000 and is still sixth in the NFL in Weighted Opportunity Rating, despite his disappointing production. I do prefer Beckham considering the $100 price gap, but Jarvis Landry is still viable at $6,900 as he’s averaged 10 targets over their last four games. Contrarian double-stacks can include Kareem Hunt ($5,600) who has 17 targets in his two games this year.
Mayfield has faced the second most difficult strength of schedule in Weeks 1-11.
Browns pass-catchers have the third-best matchup of the week.
DeVante Parker is popping a bit in the DFS Lineup Optimizer, as he’s appearing in 20% of lineups. Parker is low-key 14th in the NFL in Air Yards. The top two pass-rushers for Cleveland are suspended, so if Ryan Fitzpatrick has time to find Parker deep, that can really speed up this game and encourage more points. However, the Dolphins have a measly 17-point implied team total, so you don’t have to “run back” Cleveland stacks with a Dolphin.
Tight end has been gross this entire year and is especially gross this week. Ryan Griffin is coming off a 19.4 FanDuel point game but is now $5,600. At that point I’d rather find the $500 to get up to Zach Ertz who is very affordable at $6,100 and has 11 targets in back-to-back games. Ertz can be used as a one-off or in Seahawks-Eagles game stacks. It’s strange to like two TEs on the same team, but Dallas Goedert is also appealing on the cheaper side. Carson Wentz and Goedert seem to have an end-zone connection, as he’s scored in three of the past four weeks.
Image Credit: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Odell Beckham.
- This assumes Jordan Howard is inactive. (back)