Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 16 key stats to help you crush your Week 15 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 15
Reported lines are current as of December 12, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|12/12 8:20 ET||At Baltimore||-16.5||NY Jets||45|
|12/15 1:00 ET||Tampa Bay||-3.5||At Detroit||47|
|12/15 1:00 ET||Philadelphia||-4.5||At Washington||40|
|12/15 1:00 ET||At Green Bay||-4.5||Chicago||40.5|
|12/15 1:00 ET||New England||-9.5||At Cincinnati||40.5|
|12/15 1:00 ET||At Tennessee||-3||Houston||50.5|
|12/15 1:00 ET||Seattle||-6||At Carolina||48|
|12/15 1:00 ET||At Kansas City||-9.5||Denver||45.5|
|12/15 1:00 ET||At NY Giants||-3.5||Miami||46.5|
|12/15 8:20 ET||At Pittsburgh||-2||Buffalo||36.5|
|12/15 4:05 ET||At Oakland||-6.5||Jacksonville||45.5|
|12/15 4:05 ET||Cleveland||-2.5||At Arizona||48|
|12/15 4:25 ET||At San Francisco||-10.5||Atlanta||47.5|
|12/15 4:25 ET||LA Rams||-1||At Dallas||49|
|12/15 4:05 ET||Minnesota||-2.5||At LA Chargers||45|
|12/16 8:15 ET||At New Orleans||-8.5||Indianapolis||46|
NYJ @ BAL: Since Week 13, Robby Anderson leads the Jets in target share
IMPLIED: BAL 30.75, NYJ 14.25 — TOTAL: 45
Per our Weekly Stats tool, Anderson has 26% team target market share over New York’s last three games, a clear first ahead of Jamison Crowder (20%). By comparison, from Weeks 1-12, Crowder had the most target share (24% vs. 18%).
TB @ DET: Jameis Winston has the most expected points of all QBs
IMPLIED: TB 25.25, DET 21.75 — TOTAL: 47
Winston has 286.6 EP2 this season — first among QBs. Importantly, he’s producing even more than that, as he is 11.6 FPOE3. If healthy, Winston is yet again a great tournament option against the Lions, who have allowed the third-most FPOE to QBs over their last five games.
PHI @ WAS: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside has the most WR snaps in Philly
over the last two weeks
IMPLIED: PHI 22.25, WAS 17.75 — TOTAL: 40
With a depleted WR core in Philly, Arcega-Whiteside has handled the most snaps (107) of all Eagles wideouts. However, he ranks fourth among wideouts in this span with just five targets. With Alshon Jeffery out for the remainder of the season, will Arcega-Whiteside finally see enough targets to hit?
CHI @ GB: Chicago has allowed the ninth-most EP to WRs
IMPLIED: GB 22.5, CHI 18 — TOTAL: 40.5
According to the NFL Stat Explorer, over the last five weeks, wideouts have the ninth-most expected fantasy points when facing Chicago. Fellow wideouts Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay (x2), and Golden Tate have all scored TDs against the bears over their last five games. Tee up Davante Adams.
NE @ CIN: Tom Brady has finished as a fantasy QB1 just once in his last seven games
IMPLIED: NE 25, CIN 15.5 — TOTAL: 40.5
And he this week faces a Bengals D that is easier to move on against the ground; Cincy has allowed just two passing TDs against over their last five games while giving up the 19th-most fantasy points. This is, of course, a byproduct of Cincinnati always losing (and therefore the other team always running), but it doesn’t bode well for a Brady bounceback week.
HOU @ TEN: Derrick Henry has four straight games with 100+ rushing yards
IMPLIED: TEN 26.75, HOU 23.75 — TOTAL: 50.5
And he has scored seven rushing touchdowns in this span. He has finished as a top-seven PPR back in five straight games. This week, he gets a Texans defense that has allowed the second-most points, eighth-most expected points, and third-most FPOE to enemy RBs over their last five games.
SEA @ CAR: Russell Wilson has finished as a fantasy QB1 just one in his last seven games
IMPLIED: SEA 27, CAR 21 — TOTAL: 48
Yes, Wilson has the same bad stat as Tom Brady (see above). Wilson will have a tough go of things in Week 15 against the Panthers, who have allowed just the 28th-most expected points to opposing QBs over their last five contests.
DEN @ KC: Patrick Mahomes has gone three straight games without being a fantasy QB1
IMPLIED: KC 27.5, DEN 18 — TOTAL: 45.5
It’s the longest such streak of his short career. In fact, he had failed to finish as a QB1 only three times in his entire career leading up to Week 6 of 2019. However, he has a chance to get back on the right track against the Broncos, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing QBs over their last five games. Contrarian Mahomes week?
MIA @ NYG: Darius Slayton had the most targets with Eli Manning at QB
IMPLIED: NYG 25, MIA 21.5 — TOTAL: 46.5
Despite never playing with Eli Manning before, Slayton was still Manning’s favorite target in Week 14 as he handled a team-high eight targets. Slayton exploded for five catches, 154 yards and two TDs and now has a matchup against the hapless Dolphins secondary, which has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs over their last five games, including four straight games with at least 115 yards and a TD allowed to enemy WR1s. Slayton should crush for your Week 15 DFS roster.
BUF @ PIT: Pittsburgh’s D has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs
IMPLIED: PIT 19.25, BUF 17.25 — TOTAL: 36.5
Over their last five games, Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed opposing QBs to average fewer than 14 points per game. In all, they have allowed the second-fewest points, eighth-fewest expected points, and third-fewest FPOE to QBs in this span. As a road underdog in a game with an absurdly low point total, you should fade Josh Allen in this spot.
JAX @ OAK: The Jaguars have allowed the most FPOE to opposing QBs
IMPLIED: OAK 26, JAX 19.5 — TOTAL: 45.5
Over their last five games, the once-vaunted Jags pass D has actually allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and most FPOE to opposing QBs. With at least 22 fantasy points in four of his last seven games, you can lean on Derek Carr in Week 15 DFS contests a home favorite in this contest.
CLE @ ARZ: The Cardinals have allowed the second-most points to WRs
IMPLIED: CLE 25.25, ARZ 22.75 — TOTAL: 48
Over their last five games, the Cardinals D has allowed the second-most points, third-most expected points, and second-most fPOE to opposing WRs. Big games upcoming for Odell Beckham Jr. (squeaky wheel narrative?) and/or Jarvis Landry?
ATL @ SF: Raheem Mostert is the fantasy RB4 over the last 3 weeks
IMPLIED: SF 29, ATL 18.5 — TOTAL: 47.5
He trails only Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Leonard Fournette. And now it sounds like Mostert will be the clear lead back in Week 15 for DFS.
LAR @ DAL: This will be the fastest-paced game of the week
IMPLIED: LAR 25, DAL 24 — TOTAL: 49
The Rams-Cowboys tilt should feature a play once every 26 seconds, per our NFL Pace App, which will be the fastest seconds-per-play matchup of Week 15.
MIN @ LAC: Kyle Rudolph has been a fantasy TE1 in five of his last seven
IMPLIED: MIN 23.75, LAC 21.25— TOTAL: 45
Rudolph has six touchdowns in this span, and the Chargers have allowed TEs to score touchdowns against them in two of their last three games.
IND @ NO: Alvin Kamara hasn’t score a TD since Week 3
IMPLIED: NO 27.25, IND 18.75 — TOTAL: 46
In fact, Week 3 is the only time all season he has scored any touchdowns (one receiving and one rushing in that game). He joins Frank Gore as the only RB since Week 4 to have at least 95 rushing attempts without a touchdown. The regression will hit, and when it does, it could be huge.