Michael Dubner uses the DFS Lineup Optimizer and other RotoViz tools to prepare for Week 15 GPPs on FanDuel.
Large-field GPPs are primarily won in three key areas: 1) player projections, 2) roster construction, and 3) ownership.
Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to concentrate on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once a good play in a vacuum can become sub-optimal as chalk. And what may feel thin at first may actually be plus-EV at low ownership.
One of the benefits of using the RotoViz Lineup Optimizer is that it provides information that is unbiased and unaware of public touting. Our goal here is to uncover players and roster constructions that are going overlooked by the public and can help vault us to the top of the leaderboards to bank a large GPP prize.
*For those of you who have been with us all season, you’ll notice I’ve switched up the format this week. Hope you enjoy!
Top Optimizer Raw Scorers: Christian McCaffrey >> Aaron Jones > Josh Jacobs > Chris Carson > Dalvin Cook > Ezekiel Elliott
Not many surprises here, as they should all theoretically be considered top scorers given their price. Chris Carson sticks out on this list given he’s the cheapest at $7,400, and will have an increased role with Rashaad Penny landing on IR. Carson will be chalky, and the RotoViz DFS Lineup Optimizer says it’s for good reason. Carson has one of the highest touch projections on the slate.
Top Optimizer Values: Joe Mixon > Kareem Hunt > Aaron Jones
The Game Level Similarity Projections have been high on Aaron Jones pretty much the entire season, which has helped RotoViz subscribers profit when many have faded him given the committee. My exposure to Jones in Week 15 will come down to his expected ownership. Will he be higher owned after his GPP winning Week 14? Or will the public try to fade recency bias again as they have most of the year, especially with a lower game total.
Joe Mixon is really cheap ($6,700) for someone who is averaging 23.8 opportunities/g over his last five games. He’ll be super low owned with a matchup against the Patriots.
Kareem Hunt should see 10-15 opportunities in a prime matchup versus the Cardinals, and his increasing price tag ($6,700) will scare people away.
Possible Fade List (assuming ownership is relatively high, as expected)
Game Level Similarity Projections aren’t perfect since they rely only on past data, and do not make adjustments that humans can pick up on. However, humans also come with their biases. So only looking at historical data can lead to unique conclusions from the rest of the field.
GLSP hates Saquon Barkley, projecting home for less than eight FanDuel points. At $8,300, poor recent performance, and chalky ownership, he could be a strong fade in tournaments.
Passing Games to Stack
Ryan Tannehill – A.J. Brown – DeAndre Hopkins
RotoViz Optimal Lineups are absolutely flooding with Ryan Tannehill to A.J. Brown stacks. Touchdown regression is going to hit Tannehill at some point, but probably not in Week 15 where the Titans versus Texans total is pushing 50 points. I particularly like this stack because it’s a cheap way to get a QB – WR1 stack. A.J. Brown is 11th among all WRs in RACR. The obvious bring back option is DeAndre Hopkins.
Kyler Murray – Christian Kirk – Jarvis Landry / Odell Beckham Jr.
With back-to-back disappointing games below 15 FanDuel points, Kyler Murray may slip through the cracks and be low owned. The RotoViz DFS Lineup Optimizer likes Kyler to Christian Kirk as another cheap QB-WR1 stack. Murray is second among QBs in rushing yards and Kirk is 10th among WRs in expected fantasy points per game.
Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham are both appealing bring-back options. Landry has been far more productive and has the highest projection in the DFS Lineup Optimizer this week. While Beckham has been one of the least efficient WRs in the NFL (208th in Fantasy Points Over Expectation), he is still top-10 in Air Yards. The public may start to fade Beckham more now that we know he’s playing through a sports hernia.
Kyle Allen – D.J. Moore – Tyler Lockett / D.K. Metcalf
I know clicking on Kyle Allen’s name is gross, but literally no one is going to play him because he has looked horrific. Yet, Allen still has scored 20-plus FanDuel points in three straight games. Everyone at RotoViz knew D.J. Moore was going to break out in his sophomore season. And yet, he still may be over-delivering on his high expectations.
Running this stack back with a Seattle pass-catcher will provide leverage on chalky Chris Carson. Neither Lockett nor Metcalf will likely be very highly owned, but both possess massive price-adjusted upside if Carolina forces Seattle to speed this game up in a shootout.
Possible Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo
I was shocked to see Garoppolo priced as the most expensive QB on FanDuel’s Week 15 Main Slate. He does have 28-plus points in three of seven games and the 49ers have an implied team total approaching 30 points at home. However, the salaries of 49ers players have all been adjusted up for their recent performance and matchup, and one of my biggest concerns with Garoppolo is not knowing who to stack him with.