Stefon Diggs Still Offers an Elite Ceiling
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Image Credit: Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Stefon Diggs.

The Bills and Vikings completed a blockbuster deal that sent 26-year-old star WR Stefon Diggs to the Bills for a package of picks. Diggs was rumored to have wanted out of Minnesota since the middle of last season, as the Vikings shifted to a run-centric offense. At first glance, the transition to Josh Allen and the Bills is far from a dream landing spot, especially considering that receivers often struggle after switching teams. However, as I detail below, Diggs offers a reasonably high floor, with the potential for an elite ceiling.

Stefon Diggs in 2019

Despite the absence of Adam Thielen, the Vikings’ shift to a run-centric offense limited Diggs’ opportunity in 2019. Diggs had only 95 targets, ranking 34th in the league.

However, the Weekly Stat Explorer indicates that Diggs operated as more of an alpha receiver than his raw target total would suggest.

Player Tgt Tgt Shr Yards Yd/Tgt AirYards AirYards Share
Stefon Diggs 93 22% 1129 12.1 1412 55%
Terry McLaurin 93 23% 919 9.9 1304 47%
Courtland Sutton 126 26% 1112 8.8 1407 43%
Michael Thomas 186 33% 1725 9.3 1489 41%
John Brown 115 26% 1060 9.2 1644 40%
Odell Beckham Jr. 133 26% 1035 7.8 1678 40%
Tyreek Hill 88 22% 860 9.8 1188 39%
Allen Robinson 153 27% 1147 7.5 1658 38%
Julio Jones 156 26% 1394 8.9 1908 38%

Despite his low target total and 22% target share, Diggs led the entire NFL in team Air Yards Share at 55%, higher than notable target hog Michael Thomas. Furthermore, Diggs was hyper-efficient on his limited opportunities, as noted by his 12.1 yards per target mark. The Pass Location tool within the NFL Stat Explorer details how Diggs managed this.

Diggs operated as an elite deep threat, catching 17 of 30 deep targets for 657 yards and five touchdowns. This equated to 112.7 PPR points, 53% of his 2019 total. His 2.23 PPR points per target put him in Dave Caban’s regression danger zone. However, Diggs was in the regression danger zone in Dave’s initial article and has now joined the following list of wide receivers to complete the feat at least twice: Doug Baldwin, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Jordy Nelson, Marvin Jones, Randall Cobb, and Jermaine Kearse. If there is a group of wide receivers capable of avoiding regression, this list is a good place to start. Perhaps more significantly, Diggs will likely see an increase in volume and has already proven to be more than just an elite deep threat.

Past Versions of Diggs

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