Over the last few weeks, Zachary Krueger has been breaking down players to target per the Positional Heat Map in the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer. The articles on quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers can be found below. This article, the fourth and final of the series, focuses on tight ends.
Never a proponent of the early round tight end, there’s nothing better than bolstering my rosters with late-round TEs. Sure, guys like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz are exciting names to add, but what’s the fun in riding the superstar hype train?
I’ll never forget the excitement I felt in 2019 when I drafted an elite athlete as my TE1 who was just waiting for his chance to shine – Darren Waller. Or when Will Dissly emerged out of nowhere in 2018, looking like the next great TE before a torn ACL ended his season.
Guys like these can be found at the tight end position every year in fantasy. We just have to know where to look. Fortunately, the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer tool tells us exactly where to find these players.
Once we find the answers, it becomes our job to act on it.
Double-Digit Round Safety Net
The Positional Heat Map in the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer shows that a significant edge can be had when taking a tight in the third or fourth rounds.
While that may be the case, I don’t think I need to tell you that taking elite TEs early might pay off for you. Additionally, when looking at five years of BB10 data, we see that only eight TEs have been taken in the 25th to 48th overall range, meaning your odds of landing one could be slim.
Instead, let’s shift our focus to the double-digit rounds, where we can still find plenty of league winning upside at TE while padding our roster with other positions in the early rounds.
Take a look at the heat map, and you’ll see that anywhere between Rounds 10-15 offers reasonable upside at the TE position. There is much more room for error in this six-round range compared to the two-round range we are given when taking a TE in the third and fourth rounds.
Starting with the 10th round, let’s take a look at some of these double-digit round TEs who could lead us to fantasy glory in 2020.
Round 10 TE
- Mike Gesicki – (115.7 ADP, TE10)
- Jared Cook – (116.5 ADP, TE11)
- Austin Hooper – (118.4 ADP, TE12)