Shawn Siegele and Sam Wallace flex their dynasty draft muscles in Round 2 of the 2021 superflex startup mock.
In the Dynasty Draft-Off series, Sam Wallace and I are in a pitched battle to see who can build the best startup rosters. We’ll alternate picks with each of us responsible for six squads. We’re not just focusing on the best picks but trying to create the best teams.
After a controversial end to Round 1, Sam grabbed a handful of the best players in the NFL in Round 2. Today I’m breaking down my selections for the second stanza, and you’ll be able to decide who has the edge going into Round 3. Can my youth movement keep up?
Throughout the mock we’ll make the case for our picks, analyze draft tactics, and discuss team construction. Join Sam and me as we debate players and use the RotoViz tools to help you create the Permanent Championship Window.
2.01 Jonathan Taylor
This would have been a great opportunity to start QB-QB with Burrow and Russell Wilson, but I decided to balance the roster and take the next superstar back.
Taylor was a generational RB prospect who bizarrely fell into 41st overall as the third back off the board. Concerns about receiving ability and fumble issues may have been the culprits, but quite a few teams are going to regret the mistake. If we ignore Taylor’s draft fall and focus on the objective metrics, fantasy owners will recognize his two closest comps after a dazzling rookie season.
Taylor experienced a bit of a mid-year lull, but after missing Week 12, he blitzed the field with 130 points over the last five games. He led the NFL during that span and set him up to compete for a top-five pick in regular redraft formats. While we want to be careful about placing too much emphasis on a fast finish – of the other five fastest RB finishers, only David Johnson scored more total points the following year – Taylor’s closing run confirms his pre-draft outlook and makes him the focal point of the Colts offense in the post-Philip Rivers era.
2.02 Russell Wilson
2.03 Justin Jefferson
Blair Andrews focuses on the record-breaking rookie in his newest The Wrong Read. You’ll want to read Checking All the Boxes and the Benefits of Heuristics and Elimination Models as it teaches you how to find the next Jefferson.
2.04 Tyreek Hill
2.05 Stefon Diggs
It’s not hard to understand why Diggs pushed his way out of Minnesota when we look at his pass location charts for the last three seasons.
- In 2018 Diggs was targeted within four yards of the line of scrimmage 74 times. That gave him a high PPR floor – he was the WR10 that season – but left him without the vertical upside to challenge the elite.
- In 2019 the script flipped completely. He became almost exclusively a deep threat. Only eight WRs were targeted deeper than his 15.4 air yards per target, and his short targets plummeted to only 20 all season. He set a new career high in points per opportunity (2.2) but fell out of the top-15 fantasy WRs on per-game basis for the first time in four years.
- After moving to the Bills, Diggs became a true alpha receiver and did both. He was a master of the short target, wracking up first downs at will against overmatched defensive backs, but also demonstrated his ability on intermediate and deep targets. His 77 intermediate targets were almost as many as the previous two years combined (89).
I probably should have selected one of the younger WRs here. Diggs owners run the risk of losing a lot of trade value in a hurry with any blip in production, but I couldn’t resist Diggs’ combination of elite track record and 2021 upside in a pass-heavy, Josh Allen-led offense.