Last year, when many fantasy analysts were bemoaning an elite receiver switching teams to a run-first offense led by an inaccurate but mobile quarterback, I wrote that both the receiver and the quarterback were targets. The receiver was Stefon Diggs. The quarterback was Josh Allen. They each finished third in PPR scoring. This year a similar situation has arisen, with Kenny Golladay headed to the Giants to play with Daniel Jones. And like Diggs and Allen last season, the market is undervaluing Golladay and Jones.
Golladay Isn’t Diggs But He’s Still Great
Golladay has proven that he is among the best fantasy receivers in the game, finishing every season with a positive fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) and finishing 22nd overall in 2018 and ninth in 2019, even with Matthew Stafford missing half of 2019. Like Diggs, Golladay has proven his fantasy chops.
Golladay’s fantasy success has also been matched by elite real-life performance. In 2018 and 2019, Golladay generated the No. 12 and No. 19 best receiver-points-earned score in Sports Info Solutions’ metric.
While Golladay lacks the elite short route running and YAC ability of Diggs, there is little doubt he’s one of the top receivers in the league. But will Golladay be stifled by the Giants’ offensive philosophy and his new quarterback, as his current ADP suggests?
The Giants Throw More Than Perceived
When thinking of the Giants’ offense, many people see the specter of Jason Garrett clapping on the sideline as a running back pounds the ball up the middle for a three-yard gain on first down. I am one of those people. However, the Giants likely played faster and were more pass-heavy than you would expect.
Per the NFL Pace App, in neutral scripts the Giants played at an average tempo and were slightly below average in passing rate. Yet, when trailing by seven or more points, the Giants operated at the fifth-fastest pace and threw the ball at the sixth-highest rate. When leading by at least seven points, they were league average in pace and passing rate. While it’s a far cry from the blitzkrieg passing offenses of the Chiefs or Bills, this is not a run-first offense that limits fantasy production.
