Embracing the Carnage at the Valspar Championship: PGA DFS Breakdown
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Image Credit: David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Justin Thomas.

After a mini-vacation, we’re back with the Valspar Championship this week. The track, as always, is the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. It’s a long-ish par 71 coming in at 7,340 yards. That doesn’t mean that it’s bombs away, though, as many of the holes force a club less than driver off the tee. There are nine holes with water in play and 74 bunkers that the field must contend with. The greens are TifEagle Bermudagrass with a little bit of overseeded poa. If you’re hardcore into the putting splits, it’s definitely worth looking for good Bermuda putters.[1]

Checking the Chalk

Patrick Reed ($10,300) and Paul Casey ($10,000) are both getting quite a bit of buzz in the early portion of the week. If we’re going to get any sort of an ownership discount on the two golfers at the top, I’d gladly take it. Dustin Johnson ($11,200) and Justin Thomas ($11,500) are at the top of the PRK Score and perfect lineup percentages. I have Thomas as 0.3 strokes better per round than anyone else in the field. Unless his ownership spikes, he’ll be a priority in my builds this weekend.

Perfect Lineup Percentages - Valspar Championship

NameSalaryPerfect Lineup %
Justin Thomas115000.256
Dustin Johnson112000.203
Viktor Hovland105000.159
Patrick Reed103000.153
Paul Casey100000.09
Scottie Scheffler98000.119
Corey Conners96000.186
Louis Oosthuizen95000.068
Tyrrell Hatton94000.132
Abraham Ancer93000.107
Sungjae Im92000.155
Joaquin Niemann91000.129
Russell Henley90000.126
Bubba Watson89000.042
Justin Rose88000.107
Jason Kokrak87000.126
Charley Hoffman86000.202
Ryan Palmer85000.086
Cameron Tringale84000.133
Emiliano Grillo83000.119
Chris Kirk82000.107
Max Homa81000.063
Talor Gooch80000.074
Kevin Na80000.074
Sam Burns79000.082
Keegan Bradley79000.048
Kevin Streelman78000.071
Gary Woodland78000.041
Lucas Glover77000.06
Kevin Kisner77000.058
Charles Howell Iii77000.044
Erik Van Rooyen76000.051
Branden Grace76000.024
Adam Hadwin76000.022
Cameron Davis75000.067
Denny Mccarthy75000.059
Cameron Champ75000.033
Lanto Griffin74000.042
Mackenzie Hughes74000.03
Ian Poulter74000.025
Sam Horsfield74000.013
Doug Ghim73000.04
Alex Noren73000.037
Brandt Snedeker73000.023
Peter Uihlein73000.019
Patton Kizzire72000.047
Zach Johnson72000.03
J.t. Poston72000.024
Danny Willett72000.022
Phil Mickelson72000.02
Rory Sabbatini71000.05
Jhonattan Vegas71000.034
Matthew Nesmith71000.022
Russell Knox71000.012
Charl Schwartzel71000.012
Tom Hoge70000.041
Henrik Stenson70000.033
Luke List70000.027
John Huh70000.025
Rasmus Hojgaard70000.018
Keith Mitchell70000.015
Richy Werenski69000.056
James Hahn69000.044
Brice Garnett69000.043
Ryan Moore69000.034
Wyndham Clark69000.024
Tom Lewis69000.024
Kyle Stanley68000.049
Andrew Putnam68000.048
Sepp Straka68000.048
Martin Laird68000.026
Adam Schenk68000.023
Kyounghoon Lee68000.009
Rafa Cabrera Bello68000.006
Sam Ryder67000.048
Camilo Villegas67000.029
Scott Stallings67000.025
Graeme Mcdowell67000.016
Chez Reavie67000.011
Kristoffer Ventura67000.01
Nick Taylor67000.009
Adam Long66000.049
Chase Seiffert66000.045
Doc Redman66000.031
J.b. Holmes66000.02
Henrik Norlander66000.018
Scott Piercy66000.018
Tyler Duncan66000.016
Byeong Hun an66000.015
Cameron Percy65000.054
Brandon Hagy65000.05
Troy Merritt65000.043
Kevin Chappell65000.029
Roger Sloan65000.029
Pat Perez65000.022
Brian Stuard65000.019
Bo Hoag65000.015
Ryan Armour65000.012
Wesley Bryan64000.034
Vincent Whaley64000.029
Peter Malnati64000.027
Hudson Swafford64000.024
will Gordon64000.02
Jason Dufner64000.016
Patrick Rodgers64000.013
Rafael Campos64000.012
Jamie Lovemark64000.008
Andrew Landry64000.004
Joseph Bramlett63000.032
Mark Hubbard63000.025
Michael Gligic63000.016
David Hearn63000.014
Austin Cook63000.013
Vaughn Taylor63000.013
Aaron Baddeley63000.01
Scott Harrington63000.01
Scott Brown63000.007
Kramer Hickok63000.006
Chesson Hadley62000.033
Bronson Burgoon62000.013
Jim Herman62000.009
Sung Kang62000.009
Sean O'hair62000.009
Kelly Kraft62000.007
Hank Lebioda62000.007
Beau Hossler62000.006
Danny Lee62000.006
Kevin Tway62000.003
Satoshi Kodaira62000.002
Jonas Blixt61000.02
Grayson Murray61000.018
John Augenstein61000.014
Rob Oppenheim61000.014
William Mcgirt61000.01
Ted Potter Jr61000.006
Brian Gay61000.005
Robby Shelton61000.005
Jimmy Walker61000.004
Nick Watney61000.001
Ryan Brehm61000
Chase Koepka60000.038
D.j. Trahan60000.012
Luke Donald60000.003
Kevin Stadler60000.003
Martin Trainer60000.003
Xinjun Zhang60000.002
K.j. Choi60000.001
Michael Kim60000.001
Hunter Mahan60000.001
D.a. Points60000.001
Bo Van Pelt60000.001
Rod Perry60000

Thomas is leaps and bounds ahead of the field in perfect lineup percentage. With Casey coming in with the lowest percentage here and one of the highest ownership percentages, he makes for an enticing fade in DFS.

Corey Conners ($9,600) has the potential to be the most owned golfer in the field. He also has one of the best perfect lineup percentages in the price range. Dropping down to Charley Hoffman ($8,600) or playing Sungjae Im ($9,200) seem like the price pivots if you’re looking to fade Conners.

Dropping down in salary shows how difficult things can get in this field. Golfers under $8,000 that popped in this:

  • Sam Burns ($7,900)
  • Kevin Streelman ($7,800)
  • Cameron Davis ($7,500)

Footnotes

Footnotes
1 I’m not deep into the weeds there, no pun intended, but I know some are.

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