Earlier this week I published Roster Locked Special Part 1: Exploit the Schedule to Win the FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament as Shawn Siegele and I prepare for our Saturday draft on Roster Locked: A Best Ball Show.
In Part 1 of this series, we focused on the NFL schedule and discussed our wariness of Week 14, the first week of the playoffs in this tournament. I also broke down the Week 17 matchups we should be targeting for championship weekend.
The FFPC best ball tournament playoffs are a series of one-week events where the top teams from each “league” survive and advance. The team with the top score out of the final 12 will be the $100,000 winner in Week 17. Stacking is a popular tactic for winning big tournaments – think of the way Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs dominated last year’s postseason.
As we inch another day closer to this Saturday’s draft, I’ll take a look at 10 of the best teams to attack and find you the best mix of upside and price on those rosters.
The Best Stacks: Teams to Target, Bargain Players to Include
It wasn’t too long ago (2018 to be exact), that we saw Patrick Mahomes take the league by storm. Coming off a 2017 season in which he only saw action in one game, Mahomes carried a 115.9 FFPC ADP (QB14), and rewarded drafters with a 23.5% win rate. He threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns while leading the Chiefs to a 12-4 record. Mahomes was the overall QB1 in fantasy with 462.9 PPR (28.9 PPG).
While having Mahomes alone gave you a tremendous win rate thanks to his QB1 status and generous price, he also created value for his teammates. Getting those players on the same team was like rocket fuel for win rates.
If we look at the Player Win Rate Explorer tab in the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer tool, we can see how teams that stacked Mahomes with other Chiefs players fared.
Here are the win rates of teams that stacked Mahomes with Travis Kelce (17.1 ADP, TE2) and Tyreek Hill (30.6 ADP, WR10).
Only 10 teams pulled this stack off, but they returned a very profitable 70% win rate. Are there options to create similar stacks in 2021? Should we look at multiple players from two teams that face each other in a projected Week 17 shootout? Let’s take a look.