Corbin Young uses the RotoViz tools and a couple of simple metrics to find the top Year 2 wide receiver breakout candidates for 2021.
Last season, we enjoyed several talented rookie wide receivers in Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, and Brandon Aiyuk. But we know that Year 2 is when receivers truly shine. Given how strong last year’s rookie class turned out to be, we have a right to be excited about the possibility of sophomore breakouts.
About a year ago, Blair Andrews wrote about wide receiver age and opportunity. Blair notes that players earn a positive change in target market share and raw targets between their first and second years. Furthermore, finding receivers who scored 100 fantasy points and entered the league at 21 years old provides us with additional firepower.
Below, we see the win rates for wide receivers who scored 100 points in the previous season, based on their age in the previous season.
21-year-old rookies who scored 100 points in Year 1 — as long as they play in at least one game in Year 2 — have best ball win rates north of 10% as sophomores. So who are 2021’s breakout candidates?