Why You Should Fade the Elite Mobile QBs in Best Ball: Historical Win Rates Show the Opportunity Cost of Missing the QB Window
Image Credit: Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Kyler Murray.

Are the best mobile QBs worth their draft price in best ball drafts? Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines historical win rates to determine which elite QBs to be overweight and underweight on in 2021.

The fantasy football draft has similarities to the stock market. The players are similar to stocks in that one can craft the portfolio of players that you believe in most. However, everything comes with a cost and that price must be accounted for in each transaction. The price is determined by the market and it is up to investors to figure out what is undervalued, overvalued, and correctly priced.

In my debut article for RotoViz, I explored the unparalleled floor/ceiling combination that mobile quarterbacks bring to the table by utilizing best ball win rates. Drafters understand the tantalizing upside and have priced the top QBs accordingly. For example, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson are going as the QB2, QB3, and QB4, respectively, and are all being drafted within the top 6 rounds as of mid-July. There is no doubt that these QBs are some of the best players in a vacuum. Unfortunately, everything has a cost and in the case of elite mobile QBs, the opportunity cost is typically some of the top wide receivers and running backs.

The image above is a draft grid based on Fanball ADP. However, keep in mind that in a different format like Underdog (full PPR vs half PPR) or FFPC (1.5 PPR for TEs and only two required WR starters), the top WRs are pushed down a little further.

This article will build upon my first article and explore the cost of drafting mobile QBs in the past, if these QBs help rosters win, and two evidence-based 2021 draft targets.

Are Mobile QBs Undervalued?

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

Bjorn Yang-Vaernet

Writer at RotoViz. Best ball enthusiast. Happy to interact more on Twitter @GoldenGate_FF

Win the Waiver Wire: 6 Priority Pickups to Win the Championship in Week 17

Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines which players on the waiver wire are worth prioritizing for Week 17. Merry Christmas! I hope everyone was able to eat some good meals and spend some quality time with friends and family — between all the football games, of course. Beyond the holidays, we are also heading into the final week of playoffs for the majority of leagues. Congrats to those…...

Win the Waiver Wire: 5 Priority Pickups and 4 Stashes for Week 16

Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines which players on the waiver wire are worth prioritizing for Week 16 and highlights others to preemptively stash. I want to share a quick story. In my oldest home league, I was down about 40 fantasy points heading into the Week 15 weekend — we have two playoff rounds of two weeks. I had also just lost Justin Herbert for the season…...

Win the Waiver Wire: 7 Priority Pickups and 4 Stashes for Week 15

Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines which players on the waiver wire are worth prioritizing for Week 15 and highlights others to preemptively stash. Welcome to the part of the season where all the money is made. By this point, nearly all season-long fantasy leagues should be in the playoff weeks. Since there are so few weeks left, I am going to tighten up the number of players…...

Win the Waiver Wire: 6 Priority Pickups to Win the Championship in Week 17

Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines which players on the waiver wire are worth prioritizing for Week 17. Merry Christmas! I hope everyone was able to eat some good meals and spend some quality time with friends and family — between all the football games, of course. Beyond the holidays, we are also heading into the final week of playoffs for the majority of leagues. Congrats to those…...

Win the Waiver Wire: 5 Priority Pickups and 4 Stashes for Week 16

Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines which players on the waiver wire are worth prioritizing for Week 16 and highlights others to preemptively stash. I want to share a quick story. In my oldest home league, I was down about 40 fantasy points heading into the Week 15 weekend — we have two playoff rounds of two weeks. I had also just lost Justin Herbert for the season…...

Win the Waiver Wire: 7 Priority Pickups and 4 Stashes for Week 15

Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines which players on the waiver wire are worth prioritizing for Week 15 and highlights others to preemptively stash. Welcome to the part of the season where all the money is made. By this point, nearly all season-long fantasy leagues should be in the playoff weeks. Since there are so few weeks left, I am going to tighten up the number of players…...

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.