Why You Should Fade the Elite Mobile QBs in Best Ball: Historical Win Rates Show the Opportunity Cost of Missing the QB Window
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Image Credit: Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Kyler Murray.

Are the best mobile QBs worth their draft price in best ball drafts? Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines historical win rates to determine which elite QBs to be overweight and underweight on in 2021.

The fantasy football draft has similarities to the stock market. The players are similar to stocks in that one can craft the portfolio of players that you believe in most. However, everything comes with a cost and that price must be accounted for in each transaction. The price is determined by the market and it is up to investors to figure out what is undervalued, overvalued, and correctly priced.

In my debut article for RotoViz, I explored the unparalleled floor/ceiling combination that mobile quarterbacks bring to the table by utilizing best ball win rates. Drafters understand the tantalizing upside and have priced the top QBs accordingly. For example, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson are going as the QB2, QB3, and QB4, respectively, and are all being drafted within the top 6 rounds as of mid-July. There is no doubt that these QBs are some of the best players in a vacuum. Unfortunately, everything has a cost and in the case of elite mobile QBs, the opportunity cost is typically some of the top wide receivers and running backs.

The image above is a draft grid based on Fanball ADP. However, keep in mind that in a different format like Underdog (full PPR vs half PPR) or FFPC (1.5 PPR for TEs and only two required WR starters), the top WRs are pushed down a little further.

This article will build upon my first article and explore the cost of drafting mobile QBs in the past, if these QBs help rosters win, and two evidence-based 2021 draft targets.

Are Mobile QBs Undervalued?

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Bjorn Yang-Vaernet

Writer at RotoViz. Best ball enthusiast. Happy to interact more on Twitter @GoldenGate_FF

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