Two weeks into the 2023 NFL season and we already have a few clear candidates for the best ball MVP. They show up in redraft leagues as waiver wire headliners and late-round dart throws, but how do these studs leave their mark in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania IV? (BBM4) In this week’s BBM4 advance rate model review, we’ll identify a few late round stars and take an early look at how injuries are impacting expected advance rates.

If you didn’t catch my advance rate model review article last week, here’s a quick refresher:

My goal this season is to help my fellow best ball players track the performance of their portfolio more closely. To do that, I’ve created a model that I will update each week to predict the advance rate of each and every player drafted in BBM4. The model uses a handful of variables including the players final average draft position (ADP), points scored, position, and more to estimate a player’s advance rate if the season were to end today. 

We’ll look at the model position by position each week. Each visualization shows all players at a given position by their final Underdog ADP and expected advance rate. The red dashed line denotes an average advance rate of 16.67%. Players with expected advance rates above that line are colored in green, players below the line in red. Let’s take a look at where things stand after two weeks!