One of the more underappreciated ways that Underdog best ball is different from a normal redraft league is the “points chase” scoring. There are no weekly matchups and no W/L records, only points. Total points scored matters to an extent in redraft, but it’s typically relevant on the margins as a tie breaker or similar. This makes spike weeks less impactful in redraft. All of those extra points you score are barely relevant once you’ve got enough to win your matchup. Week 3 brought some of the biggest spike weeks we’ll see all season from DeVon Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Keenan Allen. In this week’s Best Ball Mania IV (BBM4) advance rate model review, we’ll walk through these performances and more to determine the value of a spike week in BBM4.

If you didn’t catch my advance rate model review article last week, here’s a quick refresher:

My goal this season is to help my fellow best ball players track the performance of their portfolio more closely. To do that, I’ve created a model that I will update each week to predict the advance rate of each and every player drafted in BBM4. The model uses a handful of variables including the players final average draft position (ADP), points scored, position, and more to estimate a player’s advance rate if the season were to end today. 

We’ll look at the model position by position each week. Each visualization shows all players at a given position by their final Underdog ADP and expected advance rate. The red dashed line denotes an average advance rate of 16.67%. Players with expected advance rates above that line are colored in green, players below the line in red.

New this week is a table at the end showing expected advance rates for all players. Let’s dive in!