The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
- Geno Smith is set to return to the field — he enters the week without an injury designation.
- The Titans have already been giving up positive-EPA passing plays at a high rate and playing loose coverage against WRs. Now they are missing multiple defensive starters due to injury, including cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, safeties Amani Hooker and K’Von Wallace, linebacker Jack Gibbens, and (for the third straight game) defensive end Jeffery Simmons.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett figure to be the biggest beneficiaries. But these injuries may also have an impact on what is otherwise a generally solid run defense. Kenneth Walker turned in a vintage performance against Philadelphia and will look to build on that momentum.
- Will Levis is questionable with an ankle injury. If he sits, Ryan Tannehill will likely be called upon to pilot an offense dealing with multiple injuries elsewhere. Nick Westbrook Ihkine was placed on IR and Chigoziem Okonkwo is questionable with an illness.
- The Titans haven’t been a particularly successful passing team, but the Seahawks are susceptible to big plays. DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks could find some space regardless of who is throwing them the ball.
- Yet Seattle is even worse against the run. Tennessee’s game plan always revolves around Derrick Henry, and that doesn’t change in Week 16.
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
- The Colts’ defense invites Atlanta to lean into their preferred game plan. Indianapolis struggles to stop the run but is excellent against the pass.
- Taylor Heinicke has already been named the starter, but he’s unlikely to take many pass attempts. While the Falcons haven’t been that good at running the ball, they do it more than any other team, and they’ll keep trying against the Colts.
- Jonathan Taylor is supposedly fully healthy — he has no injury designation — and just in time, as Zack Moss injured his shoulder last week. The Falcons give up big rushing plays at a high rate but are otherwise good against the run.
- Yet they are better against the pass. This, in combination with the fact that Michael Pittman Jr. is also dealing with a shoulder injury, may entice Indianapolis to lean on their running game.
- If Moss sits, former backfield dominator Tyler Goodson may get a chance to show that his 69-yard effort last week wasn’t a fluke. The Jamaal Charles comp that the Box Score Scout produced was always a pipe dream for Goodson, but it did hint at some upside that is only now coming into sharper focus.
