Shawn Siegele looks at the evidence for 2024’s biggest running back value and wonders whether we’re getting LeSean McCoy circa 2016 all over again.
LeSean McCoy’s 2016 season occurred at the intersection of trends that reverberate forward to the present. We were coming off the 2015 RB Apocalypse, and ADP moved heavily in favor of WRs. A short-lived RB Golden Age was about to start.
McCoy had recently been a star. His age-23 season featured 20 total touchdowns, and his age-25 season was good for 2,146 yards from scrimmage. He generated comparisons to Marshall Faulk, a back who put up huge numbers across his age-25 to age-28 seasons. Unfortunately, McCoy performed poorly after his move from Philadelphia to Buffalo, and he entered his age-28 campaign in apparent decline.
Against an altered ADP backdrop, McCoy fell to RB12 and 33rd overall. It was fair to be worried that he was done, but McCoy responded with a career high in yards per carry, posted the second-best TD season of his career (14), and scored 298 points in 15 games. The RB4 finish gave him a 21% win rate. That was still below David Johnson’s 26% win rate on 418 points, and yet nothing prohibited you from taking them both (or pairing McCoy with Le’Veon Bell, who averaged 26.6 PPG). Fantasy managers took advantage and cruised to victory.
Things have changed (to put it mildly). Fantasy football has evolved. But 2024 has that vibe again. Some managers are going to select Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, or Breece Hall in Round 1, and they’re going to get a player who may be the most “obvious” ADP value since McCoy in 2016.
More from the Player Value Series
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